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The Toronto Blue Jays take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Blue Jays Cardinals prediction and pick.
Jose Berrios gets the ball for the Blue Jays, while Miles Mikolas gets the start for the Cardinals.
Jose Berrios has a 4.83 ERA. He has not been the ace-level stopper the Jays hoped he would be. He can display elite form, but it doesn't show up on a regular basis. Berrios has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher for Toronto this season. In four of his eight starts, he has given up 18 runs in 15 1/3 innings. In his other four starts, he has given up four runs in 25 2/3 innings. Are we going to see the Good Berrios or Bad Berrios? That's a central question to ask when considering a Blue Jays Cardinals prediction.
Miles Mikolas has displayed the consistency the Blue Jays wish Berrios could more regularly demonstrate. Mikolas has been outstanding for St. Louis this year, giving the Cardinals a 1.68 ERA. That translates to nine earned runs allowed in eight starts encompassing 48 1/3 innings. Mikolas gave up two runs in 3 2/3 innings in his first start of the season back on April 9. Since then, he has averaged over 6 1/3 innings per start and given up an average of one earned run per start. That's outstanding. That's Cy Young-level quality and the ace-level excellence Berrios has not given Toronto this season. It's a good reason to take St. Louis in a Blue Jays Cardinals pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Cardinals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Cardinals Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-205)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+168)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
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Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
The Blue Jays can't continue to be so improbably bad with runners in scoring position. They were hitting .189 entering Sunday with runners in scoring position, the worst mark for any Blue Jays team through 40 games. The second-worst mark through 40 games with RISP was .209. If Toronto could hit .209 with RISP, it would be a marked improvement over what we have seen so far. On Sunday, Toronto went 1 for 10 with RISP in the first five innings of a frustrating 3-2 loss to the Reds. Surely, the odds are going to even out at some point. The Blue Jays have far too much talent to be hitting like this in big situations. One of these games, the bats are going to break loose.
Jose Berrios pitched seven-plus shutout innings in his last game. If he is on, the Blue Jays will have a great chance in this game.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
After scoring 18 runs on Sunday and sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, the Cardinals are on a roll. Hitters are in a groove, the team is taking care of business, and the Cardinals generally look like a playoff contender. Moreover, the Blue Jays do not. Toronto is hitting under .190 with RISP in its first 41 games this season, a horrendous mark which forces the Blue Jays to prove they can deliver before trusting them with a betting pick.
Miles Mikolas is the better starting pitcher in this matchup. He hasn't put a foot wrong since April 9. His consistency gives the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt in this game.
Final Blue Jays-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
If Toronto breaks out, the Blue Jays could win this game 8-3, but until that kind of game happens, the Jays do not merit the trust of bettors. This is frankly a stay-away game, but if you want to make a play, it has to be the Cardinals. The under looks enticing, but Berrios is too unpredictable.
Final Blue Jays-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals -1.5
