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It's the fourth and final game of the series as the Toronto Blues Jays are in Kansas City visiting the Royals. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Royals prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Blue Jays have taken the last two games of this series, and are looking to make it three out of four this afternoon. In the win on Wednesday, Alex Manoah went seven innings and allowed just five baserunners, with a hit and four walks. He struck out five and have up no runs in the winning effort. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit his first home run of the season, and Matt Chapman drove in two to get the Jays a win. The Royals struggled at the plate for a second day in a row, and while Zack Greinke had another solid outing, it was not enough for the Royals as they fell for the fifth time in six games.
Here are the Blue Jays-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Royals Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (-128)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (+106)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
How To Watch Blue Jays vs. Royals
TV: SNET/BSKC
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:10 PM ET/ 11:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
The Blue Jays' offense has been very good in the young season. They are tied for third in MLB in hits and are second in team batting average at .292. Their .363 on-base percentage is fourth in baseball as well. For all the hitting and getting on base they are doing, the scoring is not fully matching. They have only 27 runs on the season, which is 15 in all of baseball. Their three home runs on the season are 29th, only better than the Washington Nationals. The team slugging percentage is .384, which is 17th in the league. The Jays are getting on base, but not getting guys home, and overall, it is a bunch of singles.
The Blue Jays have guys with power who can get extra-base hits and home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the obvious leader in this regard, with great power and the ability to leave the yard on any pitch. Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho have also shown power in their career, but also have shown the ability to get extra-base hits on the regular. Matt Chapman averages a home run every 19 at-bats for his career but does not have one yet this year. All four of these guys need to find some bigger hits to get this Jays offense scoring.
Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight. Formerly a highly touted prospect for the Orioles, Gausman has finally shown some promise in the past two seasons. Last year in Toronto he had the second-lowest ERA of his career and the best Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) of his career. This garnered him a 9th place finish in the Cy Young voting, and a second straight year receiving votes. His first start of the year was hindered by fielding, as he went six innings and gave up three runs, all of them unearned. If he pitches as he did in the first start, and the Jays can field behind him, they will win.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
Currently, the Royals need to find a way to score. They have been shut out three times in six games, and have one game in which they only scored one run. Consequently, the Royals only have one win in the season. Firstly, only one everyday player has a batting average of over .250. The one player is catcher Salvador Perez who is hitting .263. The team's .155 batting average is 41 points below the second-worst team in the league. Secondly, eight of nine of the 11 guys who have at-bats in at least four of the six games this year are hitting at or below the Mendoza line. Hitting below .200 is not a recipe for success. Thirdly, the guys are not even getting on base. Only Jackie Bradley Jr. and Nicky Lopez are over .300 in on-base percentage.
Ultimately, the Royals need to get hits. They will not win games hitting like they are, but the pitching staff is showing that if they get a few hits, they can get wins. The Royals have a team ERA of 3.67, which is 11th in the league. Of the ten teams better than them, nine of them are 4-2 or better. The starting pitching has been solid, with an ERA on the season of 2.67, and a starter has yet to give up a home run. Furthermore, the pitching WAR of the starters of 1.2, yet the team only has one win.
Today will be Jordan Lyles on the mound. He gave up two runs, only on earned, in 5 1/3 innings in his first start of the year, but took the loss. He did allow seven baserunners in his first appearance but pitched well enough to earn a win. If he pitches like that again today and a few Royals can get hits, they will win.
Final Blue Jays-Royals Prediction & Pick
Neither team has been a stunning offense so far this year, but the Royals have been dreadful. This should be a pitching duel, with two quality starters going head-to-head. It will come down to which team can string together a few hits, or which pitcher makes the one mistake that leads to a home run. While the edge in pitching goes to the Royals, they may not score again in this game. The result, a Blue Jays win.
Final Blue Jays-Royals Prediction & Pick: Blue Jays (-1.5) and Under 8 (-102)
