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The Milwaukee Brewers take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Giants prediction and pick.
Corbin Burnes takes the rubber for the Brewers, while Carlos Rodon gets the starting assignment for the Giants.
Corbin Burnes is a machine. With a 2.20 ERA, he has maintained his place as one of the National League's best starting pitchers. He had a mediocre Opening Day outing against the Cubs but got his ERA down to 2.25 in his next start in the middle of April. Since that point in time, Burnes' ERA has never been higher (after the conclusion of any of his 2022 starts) than 2.52. He has regularly delivered the goods for the Brewers and remained the anchor they need in their starting rotation. Burnes has been especially strong in his last four starts, allowing a total of four runs in 27 2/3 innings pitched. That is the dominant, overwhelming standard of performance the Brewers count on. Given that Milwaukee's hitting has been unreliable this season, the Brew Crew has needed Burnes to be at his best. Milwaukee should be 13-4 in Burnes' 17 appearances, but because the offense has stagnated a lot in the first half of the 2022 season, Milwaukee's record is only 10-7. The Brewers have lost 3-2, 2-0, and 2-1 in games started by Burnes this year.
Carlos Rodon has a 2.70 ERA. In his most recent start, he delivered a complete-game takedown of the Padres in San Diego. He was overpowering, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out 12 in his nine-inning masterpiece. Rodon has clearly been the best starting pitcher on the Giants' staff this season. Logan Webb has been good, but Rodon has been a notch or two better. The Rodon complete-game win over the Padres is even more impressive when you realize that the Giants had lost two straight games in San Diego — and had lost seven of eight games on the season — heading into that Saturday afternoon contest. Rodon performed like a stopper, standing tall in a moment when the Giants desperately needed him. It's a reality which goes beyond the numbers. Rodon is the clutch pitcher the Giants count on in big spots such as Game 1 of a four-game set against a likely playoff team throwing its ace, Corbin Burnes, in San Francisco.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+158)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-192)
Over: 6.5 (-102)
Under: 6.5 (-120)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
Don't overthink this one. Corbin Burnes is 3-0 with a 1.30 ERA and is allowing a .121 batting average over his last four starts. He is locked in. If he remains locked in, the Brewers will win. Burnes' best game trumps Carlos Rodon's best game. Both men are pitching at a very high level, but Burnes has a higher gear to go to and has more experience as a staff ace than Rodon does. The Brewers have struggled at the plate for much of the year, but the Giants — who lost 14 of 18 in recent weeks before rallying over the past five games (4-1) — have had an even worse time at the dish.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
Carlos Rodon has allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Knowing a starting pitcher won't give up more than two runs can loosen up a ballclub. Beyond that, the Brewers have been horrendous with runners in scoring position this season. They are one of the seven worst teams in terms of batting average with RISP so far this season. Rodon might allow more baserunners in this game than he did against the Padres last Saturday, but even if that does happen, he can make big pitches to get out of jams against a Milwaukee team which has failed to pull away from the struggling Cardinals in the National League Central.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
The game might be 2-1, so the under makes sense, but an under of 6.5 is still a play with minimal margin for error. A three-run homer in the first or second inning instantly cooks that bet. Frankly, given that both teams have struggled at the plate, one of them might break out in this game. It all feels like a stay-away pick. The Brewers on the run line might be the best angle.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5
