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The Milwaukee Brewers take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Giants prediction and pick.
Brandon Woodruff gets the call for the Brewers, while Alex Wood goes to the rubber for the Giants.
Brandon Woodruff had a 4.74 ERA for the season on May 27. He got injured and was on the shelf for a month. He returned on June 28 and has been noticeably sharper since then. In his last three starts — all after coming back from injury — Woodruff has allowed a total of four runs in 17 innings pitched. This is not the pitcher we saw in the first two months of the season. Woodruff gave up seven home runs in five starts in the month of May. He has not allowed a homer in any of his last three starts. It certainly seems that the month off did wonders for his body and mind. He is locked in and will be hard for the Giants to unsettle.
Alex Wood has a 4.43 ERA, but at the end of June, that number was 5.03. In early July, Wood finally gave San Francisco some solid performances. In his last two starts, he has given up a total of one run in 12 innings pitched. The Giants, who are well behind the Braves and Padres in the National League wild card hunt, are one of several teams scrambling for that third and final wild card spot. The Cardinals, Phillies, and Marlins are also in the hunt. If the Giants want to win the battle for the third National League wild card berth, Alex Wood will need to pitch the way he has pitched in the last two games. The Giants can't have the five-run ERA pitcher who dragged them down in the first three months of the season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+134)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 7 (-118)
Under: 7 (-104)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
The Brewers are a better team than the Giants. They won 3-2 in San Francisco in 10 innings on Thursday, but they easily could have won by a larger margin. Some hard-hit balls became outs, including and especially on the warning track. They outhit the Giants 13-4 but have been horrible with runners in scoring position this season. Milwaukee got a great outing from Corbin Burnes which kept the bullpen fresh for this game. Brandon Woodruff has been very good in recent appearances. The Brewers should feel completely confident with him on the mound. Alex Wood simply isn't as good as Woodruff. Milwaukee has the clear edge in the pitching matchup here.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
After seeing Alex Wood raise his level of performance in the past two games, the Giants have to think Wood is figuring things out and is returning to the standard San Francisco needs from him. If the version of Alex Wood in this game is the one we saw in his previous two games, that would change the dynamic of this clash and make San Francisco a much more attractive pick.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
If Alex Wood dominates, so be it. The logical choice is to take Woodruff over Wood in a head-to-head battle. Go with the Brewers.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5
