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The Chicago Cubs take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Giants prediction and pick.
Adrian Sampson gets the start for the Cubs, while Carlos Rodon takes the bump for the Giants.
Adrian Sampson has a solid 3.20 ERA, but he has pitched fewer than 40 innings this season. He didn't become a regular part of the Cubs' rotation until June 19. He has made only seven starts in 2022. As hitters see more of him and get more tape on him, they will probably be able to adjust, but speculation aside, Sampson doesn't have an especially large sample size, so it's hard to know how he will manage the remaining two months of his regular season. The Cubs are getting good starting pitching right now. Their pitching staff is definitely improving as the season goes along. Yet, it's still a mystery as to whether Sampson can sustain his current level of form.
Carlos Rodon gave up more than three runs only once in the first three months of the season. In the month of July, he has given up more than three runs three different times. Rodon is a workhorse. His complete-game win over the Padres on July 9 in San Diego was one of the best-pitched games by anyone in Major League Baseball this year. Yet, the erosion we have seen from Rodon in July has to be a point of concern not only for the Giants, but for teams interested in trading for him. It was reported on Saturday that the Giants are listening to offers for Rodon and might be a trade deadline seller due to their recent losing binge (8 of 10). Rodon might be auditioning for a new team in this game. That's a lot of pressure.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Giants Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-142)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
Carlos Rodon is not the same pitcher in July, compared to April through June. Rodon's season-long ERA at the end of June was 2.62. Now it is 3.18. Rodon's July-only ERA is 4.80. The Cubs are not facing the pitcher who was firmly in control of his powers in the first three months of the season.
What should also help Chicago is that Adrian Sampson has pitched well for the Cubs. Hitters don't feel fully comfortable against him. The Giants have been dealing with injuries all season long and have not been able to put their best lineup on the field with any regularity or consistency. The Cubs can take advantage of that.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
Carlos Rodon might be pitching his final game as a member of the Giants. He might be pitching for a hefty price tag and a trade to a playoff contender. The industry chatter surrounding the Giants and their possible desire to be sellers before the trade deadline has surely made its way into the San Francisco locker room. Rodon is aware of the stakes involved. He has every incentive to pitch at a high level against a light-hitting Cubs team. That could work in the Giants' favor.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Rodon trade deadline drama is impossible to ignore. It is also a really good and situationally specific reason to pick the Giants here.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick: Giants -1.5
