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The San Diego Padres will host the Chicago Cubs for the third and final time of this series at Petco Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Cubs-Padres prediction and pick.
These teams split the first two games of this slugfest series. The Cubs and Padres collectively put 21 runs on the board through the first two games, and we should certainly expect more fireworks in the rubber match. The Cubs swept the Padres earlier this month, so San Diego would love to retaliate with a series victory of its own.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Cubs-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Padres Odds
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-105)
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)
Over 8 Runs (-102)
Under 8 Runs (-118)
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs have been one of the most potent offensive clubs in the league through the first two months of the regular season. They are currently top 10 in the league in home runs and middle of the pack in runs, hits, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Much of their success has been directly associated with the resurgence of slugger Kris Bryant. Bryant leads the team in runs, hits, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Javier Baez has been great as well as he is top five in the National League in home runs and RBI.
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The Cubs will turn to right-hander Jake Arrieta for the rubber match. The Cubs right-hander has had a tough go of it this season, and especially of late. Arrieta went two innings and gave up six earned runs on six hits in his most recent start against the San Francisco Giants. He is currently 5-6 with a 5.26 ERA through 11 starts this season. Opposing hitters are batting .273 against the Cubs starter.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres have been as advertised through the first two months of the regular season. San Diego is top 10 in the league in runs, hits, RBI, walks, and on-base percentage. They are middle of the pack in terms of home runs and batting average as well. The Padres have seen a ton of success thanks in large part to superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis leads the charge with 17 home runs and 39 RBI. He has done it all on the field as he also leads the team in stolen bases and has done all of this in just 44 appearances through his team's first 63 games played.
San Diego will hand the ball to elite right-hander and former Cub Yu Darvish for the rubber match. Darvish has been absolutely filthy this season with a 6-1 record and 2.25 ERA through 12 starts. The right-hander gave up four hits and two earned runs through 5 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the New York Mets. Opposing batters are hitting just .193 against the Padres starter as well.
Final Cubs-Padres Prediction & Pick
In a series that has featured a ton of offense through two games, I see the Padres having a more sustainable formula at the plate in the rubber match. Jake Arrieta has been awful this season and the Padres crush at home. Yu Darvish has been electrifying on the bump and is certainly in the early running for the Cy Young Award. With the disparity in the pitching matchup and the advantage at the plate to begin with, the Padres should have no problem covering this spread. There is great value here.
FINAL PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)
