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The Chicago Cubs take on the New York Yankees. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Yankees prediction and pick.
Matt Swarmer gets the start for the Cubs, while Jordan Montgomery gets the ball for the Yankees.
Matt Swarmer has pitched twice for the Cubs this season. His first start was on May 30 against the Brewers, his second on June 4 against the Cardinals. Swarmer didn't allow more than two earned runs in either start. He gave up three unearned runs against the Brewers; his defense did not help him out. It's hard to gain too much of a read on Swarmer based on just 12 innings of work, but he has started his season as well as the Cubs reasonably could have hoped. He is ultimately a mystery when you size up this game and attempt to make a Cubs Yankees prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Jordan Montgomery has a 3.02 ERA. Nestor Cortes is the best pitcher on the Yankees' staff, and Gerrit Cole is paid the big dollars. Jameson Taillon has significantly improved this season. Montgomery will not generate many headlines or become the key piece to the Yankees' postseason push. Yet, he has ultimately done his job for New York. He is a back-end-of-the-rotation starter who is asked to eat some innings and not let games get out of hand so that the offense and the bullpen can finish the job. Montgomery has done exactly that so far in 2022. He has pitched at least five full innings in nine of his 11 starts, and he has never allowed more than three runs per start. His only particularly subpar start was on April 10, when he gave up three runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Red Sox. If Montgomery continues to give the Yankees what he has been giving them — 5 2/3 innings and two runs allowed, give or take one out — Aaron Boone will be very happy. He is a reliable part of the equation when considering a Cubs Yankees pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Yankees MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Yankees Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (+104)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (-125)
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
The Cubs are obviously not the better team, but they are getting Jordan Montgomery and not Nestor Cortes or Jameson Taillon, the two hottest starting pitchers on the Yankees. This is a good spot for the Cubs to pounce and string together some hits. Also, Matt Swarmer, though not owning a copious amount of big-league experience, has done well in his first two starts this season and, due to his lack of familiarity around the majors, won't be as easy for the Yankees to read at the plate. Beyond all of this, the Yankees — who were 25 games above .500 before June 10 — are bound to have a rough patch at some point. They are playing at close to a 120-win pace, but no team has ever won 120 games in a 162-game schedule. The record is 116 by the 2001 Seattle Mariners.
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
After getting home from Minnesota overnight the previous day, the Yankees didn't handle their Friday game very crisply at the plate against the Cubs. They didn't get a single hit with runners in scoring position until the 13th inning. They couldn't score in the 10th through 12th innings, even with a runner on second and no outs (the ghost runner) in each of those innings. They were flat after their travel schedule. After getting a chance to sleep in their own beds, you should see a sharper Yankee lineup with better at-bats against a young pitcher who will find it hard to deal with New York's power and depth.
Final Cubs-Yankees Prediction & Pick
If there's a time for the Cubs to win on the weekend, this is it, but would you really bet against the Yankees, given the way they're playing right now? It's a good stay-away game, but a Yankee pick at home against a sub-.500 opponent is never going to elicit disapproval.
Final Cubs-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5
