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The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Diamondbacks Padres prediction and pick.
Tyler Gilbert goes to the hill for the Diamondbacks, while Sean Manaea makes the start for the Padres.
Tyler Gilbert has a 5.33, but you should ignore that fact. He has pitched only six times this season. This will be the first time all year he will be making three straight regular starts in the D-Backs' rotation. Gilbert has pitched twice in a row once, in late April. Then he had a 22-day gap before his next start in mid-May. Then he had a 21-day gap before one start in June. Then he had a one-month gap before returning to the rotation on July 5. In his two most recent starts, on July 5 and 10, Gilbert has been solid. He has pitched 9 1/3 innings and allowed only one run. His ERA is so high because his two starts in late spring — the one start in May and the one in early June — were total disasters: 12 earned runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings. The last two starts have been completely different. If this is the guy the D-Backs are going to get for the rest of the season, they'll be thrilled.
Sean Manaea has a 4.09 ERA. If you have followed our coverage of Major League Baseball this year at ClutchPoints, and you have read these betting previews every week, you know that Manaea has been inconsistent and that the flashes of brilliance don't last long. They aren't sustained. The Padres, who have wobbled this week and have failed to put some distance between themselves and other teams in the National League wild card race, desperately need Manaea to be the pitcher he is capable of becoming. They need a 2.75 ERA, but they're getting a four-run pitcher instead. He takes one step back for every step forward, thereby remaining stuck.
The hope in San Diego is that Manaea might have found something in his most recent start on July 11. He went into Coors Field, a house of horrors for the Padres, and contained the Rockies. Manaea went 6 1/3 strong innings, allowing only two runs. The Padres did lose three of four in Coors this week, but they won Manaea's start, which snapped a 10-game losing streak in Denver. If Manaea can pitch like that on a regular basis, the Padres become a substantially better team. This is a hugely important moment before the All-Star break for Manaea and the San Diego ballclub.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Diamondbacks-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Padres Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-125)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+104)
Over: 8 (-102)
Under: 8 (-120)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
Sean Manaea is simply not a pitcher one can fully trust, at least not until he begins to stack together several good starts in a row, something which has largely eluded him this season. Manaea was good in his last outing, but being good in his last outing has usually not been an indicator that Manaea will thrive in his next start. Tyler Gilbert — who memorably no-hit the Padres last year — has been solid in his latest turn through the Diamondbacks' rotation. The Padres have an inconsistent offense Gilbert can contain. A 4-3 or 5-4 Arizona win seems entirely reasonable.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
After winning Friday night, the Padres expunged the bad taste in their mouths after another nightmarish series in Denver against the Rockies, their non-Dodger nemesis in the National League West. That victory over Arizona should enable San Diego to hit the reset button and generate some momentum against the D-Backs, who have struggled mightily in San Diego in recent years. This is a time for the Padres to enter the All-Star break on an upward swing. The Padres are going to attack Tyler Gilbert and have a fun night in the ol' ballyard.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup is a good reason to lean to the Diamondbacks, but Tyler Gilbert ultimately remains a mystery, given how little he has pitched this year. The Padres hate playing the Rockies, but they love playing the Diamondbacks at home. They do well in this team matchup. That should trump the pitching matchup here.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
