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In what could very much be an NLCS preview, the Giants and Braves start a three-game series in Atlanta on Friday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Braves prediction and pick.
As two of the National League's premier teams, each team finds themselves with a comfortable playoff spot right now. But the story of the Giants and Braves seasons have been completely different. While the Giants have been dominant since the beginning of the season, the Braves hovered around .500 for much of the season until late July / early August, when the team caught fire, including a recent nine-game winning streak. The Braves dropped their past two contests against the Yankees but still find themselves as favorites in their home ballpark tonight.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Friday's game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Braves Odds
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San Francisco Giants (+105)
Atlanta Braves (-115)
Over 8 1/2 runs (+100)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-120)
Why The Giants Could Win
Kevin Gausman has been one of baseball's best and most consistent pitchers all season, so the fact that the Giants – as good as they are – are still underdogs with Gausman on the hill is quite surprising. In August, Gausman has gone 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA. Playing in Atlanta might also be good news for Gausman and the Giants tonight. In 2021, Gausman has pitched four games in the Eastern Time Zone. Here is how he has fared in each game:
April 19 at Philadelphia: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, Win
May 14 at Pittsburgh: 8.0 IP, 1 ER, No Decision
May 19 at Cincinnati: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, Win
June 12 at Washington: 4.0 IP. 2 ER, Loss
Given these numbers, it is clear that Gausman has dominated when on the opposite coast this season. Despite just the two pitcher wins, he allowed two or fewer earned runs in each game, including two games of allowing no earned runs at all. Even against a Braves offense that is among the league's best, Gausman should have no problem replicating similar numbers to his starts in Pennsylvania and Ohio. If the Giants offense continues to slug as they normally do (most home runs in MLB this year), the Giants should be win by at least a couple of runs.
Why The Braves Could Win
The Braves left-handed pitcher Max Fried is having arguably his best month of 2021. In August, Fried holds a 4-0 record with an unreal 0.67 ERA. In his last start, on August 20 in Baltimore, Fried pitched nine shutout frames, allowing just four hits. His other three starts this month have all been quality starts, never allowing more than one run in any of those starts. Fried's 3.49 season ERA pales in comparison to the dominance he has shown in August. While he has not faced a lineup quite like the Giants this month, he did excel against a very good Cardinals lineup August 3, allowing no runs across 6.0 innings. With the Braves riding a two-game losing streak and looking to find the winning ways that saw them recently win nine consecutive games, Max Fried is the best pitcher they could have to put them back in the win column.
Final Giants-Braves Prediction & Pick
This is as close of a matchup as it gets, with two of the NL's best pitchers facing off. Although Fried has pitched slightly better lately, Gausman is no pushover either. Given the Giants have the better record (by far) and are still getting plus money here, I like the Giants to win outright and extend the Braves mini-losing streak.
FINAL PICK: Giants MONEYLINE (+105)
