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The Giants travel east to Citi Field to take on the Mets for the second series between these teams in less than a week. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Mets prediction and pick.
Although the Giants are the far superior team this season, the Mets are favored today because of the pitching mismatch. While both starters are rookies, Tylor Megill has greatly outperformed Sammy Long in 2021. The Giants are also traveling across the country, which tends to be trouble for the visiting team.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Mets Odds
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San Francisco Giants +1 1/2 (-197)
New York Mets -1 1/2 (+172)
Over 8 runs (-120)
Under 8 runs (+100)
Why the Giants Could Cover
This is a rare game for the Giants that they enter as an underdog (+103 moneyline). Although they're baseball's best team, they are underdogs here likely because they are starting a rookie pitcher who mostly has pitched out of the bullpen. Long has not pitched over 4.0 innings in a game since June 27. In his last start, he allowed one earned run in two innings of work. So, if this becomes a bullpen game, the Giants are well-positioned to do well. Their bullpen contains five players with an ERA+ of 147 or better. Seeing as how the Mets recently struggled against the Dodgers in a similar bullpen-game, the Giants ‘pen should have no trouble retiring this Mets lineup. At the plate, the Giants may not need more than three or four runs to earn the victory. With 603 team runs (fourth in the NL), this should be no challenge at all for San Francisco.
Why The Mets Could Cover
After a rough stretch in early August that saw Tylor Megill post an ERA of 6.75 across three starts, the Mets rookie pitcher returned to his dominant self in his last outing. Pitching against these same Giants on August 18, Megill allowed one run in 6.0 innings as the Mets went on to win, 6-2. On the season, Megill has a 3.21 ERA and has been one of the Mets best pitchers since June. The Mets are coming off an important 7-2 win over the Dodgers. While it's just a one-game sample size, the team just got slugger Javier Báez back in the lineup and might have found the momentum they need to make one last postseason push. Between Megill's success and the likelihood for another big day at the plate for these Met hitters against the rookie Sammy Long, the Mets should actually win with ease against the Giants. Bettors might wonder why the Mets are favored today, but look at the pitching matchup. Getting the Mets run line at +172 odds is tremendous value.
Final Giants-Mets Prediction & Pick
Given Sammy Long's track record, I believe the Mets have a great chance today to get a few runs on the board early before having to face the more dominant Giants bullpen. Even if the Mets get just a run or two off the Giants ‘pen, this should be enough to backup a strong performance from Megill. Báez has another impressive day at the plate as the Mets win in a stress-free game for Met fans.
FINAL PICK: Mets – 1 1/2 (+172)
