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The San Francisco Giants look to complete the sweep in the final game of their three-game set against the Mets at Citi Field. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Mets prediction and pick.
The Giants have had the clear upper hand in this series so far, and that should come as no surprise. After winning 8-0 and 3-2 on Tuesday and Wednesday, they have extended their MLB-leading record to 82-44. However, they hold a slim 2.5 game lead off the Dodgers in the NL West standings. Meanwhile, the Mets are 2-9 against the Dodgers and Giants this month, and have fallen seven games behind the Braves in the NL East. The Mets do have an easy schedule coming up, but their playoff chances are extremely low right now.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Thursday's game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Mets Odds
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San Francisco Giants (-115)
New York Mets (+105)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-110)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-110)
Why The Giants Could Win
Although Giants' starter Alex Wood holds a 5.40 ERA in four August starts, an interesting trend I noticed is how he has performed in two starts on the East Coast this season. In his first start of the season in Miami, Wood allowed no runs across five innings, while earning the win. Then on May 17 in Pittsburgh, Wood allowed just one run in six innings, earning the win again. This will be his first start in the Eastern Time Zone since that start against the Buccos. With the way the Mets offense is performing, against another dominant performance by Wood. There aren't enough good things to say about the Giants offense as well, which just hit four home runs in their series opening win against the Mets on Tuesday.
Why The Mets Could Win
Carlos Carrasco has a 3.15 ERA in three career starts against the Giants, although he has not faced him since 2017. The Mets have also kept their games close against the Giants (aside from the 8-0 loss on Tuesday). Last week, the Mets had a +1 run differential in three games against the Giants, despite the Mets winning just one of those three games. Then last night, the Mets lost 3-2, and ended the game leaving the bases loaded. While the Giants are the much better team overall, the Mets are competing, and given how many opportunities they have with runners in scoring position, they're due to break through today. The Giants winning by a run or two in all these wins against the Mets seems unsustainable, especially given the Mets tendency to continue fighting back late in games. If the Mets win, I think they still keep it close, but coming out on top by one or two wins seems most likely here. After all, they ended their past two disappointing series versus the Dodgers and Giants with wins in the final game of the series.
Final Giants-Mets Prediction & Pick
Both teams bring struggling pitchers to the mound, so this game might come down to which offense will capitalize most on the pitchers' early mistakes. Given the Mets offensive woes and Carrasco allowing five home runs through five starts this year, I think the Giants score early and don't relinquish the lead. The Giants are the better team by far and getting -115 odds here feels like a steal.
FINAL PICK: Giants MONEYLINE (-115)
