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The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets will continue their three-game series on Wednesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Mets prediction and pick.
This series has huge implications for both teams. The Giants are barely clinging to first place in the NL West, as the Los Angeles Dodgers are only 2.5 games behind them. The Dodgers have been red-hot lately, so any San Francisco loss probably means that the Dodgers gain ground. The Mets, on the other hand, don't have the luxury of being in first place. New York is 6.5 games back in the NL East, and time is running out. The Mets need to put things back together as soon as possible if they want any hope of reclaiming first place in their division. With both teams having so much to play for, this should be an entertaining game.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Wednesday's game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Mets Odds
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San Francisco Giants ML (+109)
New York Mets ML (-119)
Over. 8 1/2 runs (-118)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-102)
Why The Giants Could Win
The Giants come into this game as one of the best offenses in baseball. They rank inside the top 10 in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. They also lead the league in home runs hit. San Francisco clearly has an argument for the best offense in baseball and should be able to show why against Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker.
At first glance, Walker's numbers look pretty impressive. However, he owns a couple of stats that tell a completely different story. Walker's ERA over his last seven appearances is an abysmal 7.49, with his WHIP in that span sitting at 1.57. Those are both pretty bad numbers, so San Francisco should enter this game with a fair amount of confidence in their offense.
Things get even better for the Giants when we look at the sabermetrics involved with this matchup. Walker allows a barrel percentage of 9.3% and an expected slugging percentage of .417. Both of those numbers are extremely high, and they indicate that Walker will probably be giving up plenty of extra-base hits and home runs in this matchup. That won't work out too well against a team that is one of the best squads in the league in terms of power hitting.
Why The Mets Could Win
The Mets have struggled on offense all season long, but they have a great opportunity to turn that around in this game. The Giants will send out pitcher Johnny Cueto to make the start, a fact that should give New York a little bit of confidence.
Cueto has actually been pretty good on the year, but his last seven starts have been rough. Over that span, he has earned himself a 4.38 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they do indicate a level of pitching that the Mets should be able to take advantage of. It helps that New York is slightly better offensively when playing at home, proven by a jump in batting average and OBP at Citi Field.
Luckily for Taijuan Walker, he's facing a depleted Giants lineup. Star shortstop Brandon Crawford and All-Star catcher Buster Posey are both questionable heading into this game. There's a chance that neither of them play, which would greatly improve the chances of a good outing from Walker.
Final Giants-Mets Prediction & Pick
It's surprising that the Giants are underdogs in this game. They have the pitching advantage and the offensive advantage even if Crawford and Posey don't play. With Walker pitching so poorly lately, San Francisco is an easy bet. Lock in the Giants and don't look back.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants ML (+109)
