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The Cleveland Guardians take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Dodgers prediction and pick.
Zach Plesac gets the starting assignment for the Guardians, while Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers.
Zach Plesac has a 4.70 ERA. In his first three starts of the season, he posted a 1.53 ERA. Then came the rough and choppy waters. In his next five starts, his ERA skyrocketed to 5.40. He allowed five or more runs in four of those five starts, though some of them were unearned. In his last three starts, Plesac has shown signs of settling into a much better rhythm. He has pitched 18 innings — six in all three starts — and allowed six earned runs total. Whether he is polishing his technique or getting a better feel for hitters, he has been able to minimize damage and stay away from the big inning. Plesac needs to allow fewer home runs — on June 11, he had his first home-free start since April 21 — and fewer hits. He has given up more hits than the number of innings he has pitched. He has to find a way to prevent hitters from squaring up the ball as regularly as they do.
Clayton Kershaw returned to the mound on June 11 against the Giants. He had not pitched since May 7 due to injury. He wasn't great, and he wasn't terrible. He threw four innings, giving up two runs on three hits, one of them a home run. No one should have expected him to be especially sharp, and he wasn't. He also didn't look out of his depth, either, fooling some San Francisco hitters with his change of pace, something he has needed to do as he gets older. This start is very important for Kershaw and the Dodgers. Having one start under his belt after the injury gave him an idea of where he needs to improve. The reality of making a second start after an injury gives him an opportunity to polish his mechanics and rediscover a rhythm which works for him. Kershaw, as everyone remembers, threw seven perfect innings against the Twins back in April before being lifted due to a pitch count. He was very strong before his injury. Given that Walker Buehler is out for an extended period of time, L.A. needs Kershaw to be healthy and good in the coming weeks. This is a big night for him and the organization.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Dodgers Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (+112)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-134)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
The Dodgers are not hitting the ball well. Mookie Betts went over 10 days without scoring a run until he snapped that streak earlier this week against the Los Angeles Angels. The Dodgers did beat the Angels twice in their short Southern California series, but the Dodgers still didn't hit the ball well. They scored one run from a non-home run source in those two games against the Angels. This came after they got very few hits with runners in scoring position in a two-game sequence last Saturday and Sunday against the Giants. The Dodger offense has been in a prolonged slump, and until the team busts loose, it's not easy to pick L.A. The Guardians are on a roll, having just swept the Rockies in Denver. They are playing fantastic baseball and are a real problem for every opponent they play.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After Tyler Anderson's near-no-hitter against the Angels, everyone in the Dodger dugout has to feel great not only for their teammate, but for the fact that the team has been able to once again fight off a bad stretch of baseball. No, the hitters aren't in a groove yet, but those wins against the Angels give the Dodgers a chance to start fresh. Against Zach Plesac, they have an opposing pitcher they can feast on to once again demonstrate how potent they are at the plate.
Final Guardians-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
If Kershaw is average — let's say five innings and two runs — the Dodgers should be able to hit Plesac hard enough to win the game comfortably.
Final Guardians-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
