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The New York Mets will travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game series this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Mets are entering Philadelphia with their tails between their legs, losing three out of four in Atlanta, including a heart-breaker in the final game. Still, the Mets are 76-43, three and a half games ahead of Atlanta for the NL East lead. A nine-game stretch against their rivals is exciting for the fanbase.
Philadelphia has gone 6-4 in their last 10, securing the second NL Wild Card spot at 65-52. As the team awaits the return of Bryce Harper, all they need to do is continue treading water and holding a playoff spot. When Harper returns, there's always a chance of the impossible happening. Taking three from New York this weekend would go a long way to igniting a miracle.
Here are the Mets-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-200)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York is one of the most fun teams in the league. Two aces lurk at the top of their rotation, and a polar bear mans first base! That said polar bear, Pete Alonso, has enjoyed a dominant season, hitting .273 with 29 home runs and 99 RBI. Alonso is quickly becoming the heartbeat of this team, and his offense is becoming contagious. Francisco Lindor has rebounded from his 2021 inauguration to New York, hitting 21 home runs and 83 RBI in his 118 games. Starling Marte has added 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases after signing as a free-agent. Brandon Nimmo continues to epitomize hustle and grit, with 10 home runs and a .349 on-base percentage. Oddly, the Mets lead the league with 78 HBP, and were being hit so frequently that the home broadcast created an edit for manager Buck Showalter. The Mets are fifth in the league with a .258 batting average if you prefer counting stats.
Chris Bassitt is tonight's starting pitcher, bringing a 3.27 ERA in his 22 starts. Bassitt leads the team in both games started and innings pitched with 135. Bassitt's average exit velocity is a measly 85.2 mph, which ranks in the 96th percentile in the league. Bassit has been great in his last seven starts, with a 1.79 ERA in 45.1 innings in those seven games. New York's bullpen is above-average, ranking 11th in the league with a 3.72 ERA. Close games however usually are not an issue, with Edwin Diaz lurking in the ninth, and sometimes eighth. Diaz has dominated this season, with a 1.30 ERA, 27 saves, and 96 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. This is one the heels of tough seasons in 2019 and 2021. Diaz has single-handingly justified a big trade in the 2018 offseason.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia has some powerful hitters, led by lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has launched 34 home runs, Rhys Hoskins has 26, and Bryce Harper, who has not played since June, is third with 15 home runs. As a team, Philadelphia has 153 home runs, good for sixth in the league. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has one of the most unique skill sets as a catcher, has 13 home runs and 15 stolen bases without being caught. Alec Bohm is living up to his first round billing, leading the team with a .288 batting average, adding 8 home runs and 18 doubles. Nick Castellanos, in an up and down first year in Philadelphia, has 11 home runs but leads the team with 25 doubles.
Aaron Nola, homegrown star, will be tonight's starting pitcher. Nola has gone 8-9 with a 3.07 ERA in his 23 starts, striking out 165 batters in 152.2 innings. In his last 15 starts, Nola has pitched to a 2.81 ERA. Nola's 3.6% walk rate is miniscule, ranking in the 98th percentile. Nola's three main pitches, fastball, curveball, and sinker, have baffled batters, holding them below a .200 batting average on all three offerings. Philadelphia's bullpen has long been a shaky operation, and this season is no different. The best of the group has been Seranthony Dominguez, who has rebounded from years of arm troubles to pitch to a 1.64 ERA in 44 innings. David Robertson, acquired at the trade deadline, has not allowed a run in his six innings with the team, saving 2 games.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Give the nod to Nola in this one.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 (+164), under 7.5 (-108)
