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The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies will conclude a short two-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday afternoon. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Nationals-Phillies prediction and pick.
Washington defeated Philadelphia by a score of 3-2 on Tuesday thanks to a dominant outing from Max Scherzer. The Nationals have been scorching hot lately with wins in eight of their last nine games. The Phillies have struggled recently, but are still 7-2 in their last nine home games against Washington.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Nationals-Phillies odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Phillies Odds
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+155)
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-175)
Over 9 Runs (-105)
Under 9 Runs (-115)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington is looking to repeat history as the 2019 Nationals started off sluggish and roared back to reach the postseason. It's tough to say that this club has as much talent as that one did, but the Nats are certainly roaring. They've won eight of their last nine and are now two games under .500 on the season.
Washington's offense really struggled out of the gate and has recently turned it up a notch. They currently score the 28th most runs in baseball, but have scored at least five runs in four of their last nine games. Their pitching has been stellar this season as they allow just 3.91 runs per game, which is good for eighth in the Majors.
The Nationals will turn to Erick Fedde as they look to complete the sweep. The Nats right-hander is 4-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 49 strikeouts through his first 10 outings of the season. Fedde has been lights out recently as he's currently riding a 20 consecutive scoreless inning streak. He faced the Phillies back on May 11, when he struck out four and allowed three runs over five innings of work.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Philadelphia Phillies have been looking to get over the hump for the past few years and appeared to have done so earlier this season. They've fallen off recently with losses in five of their last seven games, though. The Phillies would be in much better shape if all of their games were played at Citizens Bank Park, where they are 21-13 this season.
Truthfully speaking, the Philadelphia Phillies are a mediocre team at best in 2021. They score 4.24 runs per game, which is good for 18th in the Majors. They allow 4.41 runs per game, which is the 16th-best mark in baseball. The defense is more than a half-run better at home, but the Phillies have too many holes on their roster to sustain success.
Philadelphia will turn to Vince Velasquez as they look to salvage this series. The Phillies right-hander is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 59 strikeouts through 14 starts. Velasquez had a strong start to the season with a 2.30 ERA through his first six starts and has struggled ever since. He has a 7.88 ERA over his past four starts, striking out 14 and walking nine over 16 innings of work. The Phillies starter hasn't thrown more than five innings in a start since May 25.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick
I like this game to go under the total for a few reasons. The most obvious is that Erick Fedde is currently riding a 20-inning scoreless streak, which is sustainable against a struggling Phillies bunch. The Nats bullpen has a 0.77 ERA over their last 10 games as well. Vince Velasquez has been bad lately, but he isn't going up against a juggernaut lineup to say the least. The Phillies bullpen has a 3.34 ERA over their last 10 games and this afternoon game should go down to the wire.
FINAL PICK: Under 9 Runs (-115)
