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The San Diego Padres take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Our MLB odds series has our Padres Diamondbacks prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Padres Diamondbacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks continue to show that they are likely to be a contender for a postseason spot in 2023. It might be the National League West, it might only be the N.L. wild card, but Arizona is strengthening its case that it will at least be in the mix in late September. The D-Backs have a 5-3 record against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They split a two-game series against the Padres in San Diego earlier in April. They have split the first two games of this series in Phoenix against the Padres. Arizona is trading punches with the top contenders in the National League West. The Diamondbacks are not getting tossed around, unlike portions of last season when the limitations of their offense and bullpen became apparent.
Arizona called up some young players from the minor leagues late last season. Those players, such as Corbin Carroll, have given the offense a boost. Meanwhile, pitcher Zac Gallen has regained the Cy Young-level form he captured in 2022. Gallen needed just a few starts to shake off some early-season rust. On Friday night, he blanked the Padres and pushed his scoreless inning streak over 20. Remember: Gallen had a scoreless inning streak of over 40 last season. He has obviously regained his groove for an Arizona team which is trying to defy the odds with a much smaller payroll than its division rivals from San Diego and Los Angeles.
Here are the Padres-Diamondbacks MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Diamondbacks Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+105)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-126)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
How To Watch Padres vs. Diamondbacks
TV: Bally Sports San Diego (Padres) / Bally Sports Arizona (Diamondbacks) / MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/5:10 p.m. PT
*Watch Padres-Diamondbacks LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres did lose on Friday, but they ran into Zac Gallen, who was dealing. Though Merrill Kelly, Arizona's starter in this Saturday game, is a very good pitcher, he's not Zac Gallen. The Padres couldn't figure out the Arizona ace on Friday. They should have a much better time handling the D'Backs' No. 2 starter in this game.
The other reason to take San Diego is that the Padres generally hit better away from Petco Park. That is a pitcher-friendly yard where San Diego's power and potency aren't fully realized. Chase Field in Phoenix is a much more hitter-friendly setup, which magnifies the value of the Padres' heavy hitters.
Also simply realize that while the Padres have had their share of struggles, they usually do bounce back after a bad loss with a win. The flip side is that after a win, they lose, as they showed Friday night, and also this past Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Coming off a loss is a good spot for San Diego on the road.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Diamondbacks are playing well. They are showing they can compete with their foremost division rivals. They have played a dozen games so far this season against the Padres (4) and Dodgers (8), and their record in those games is 7-5. Arizona is showing signs of being a real playoff contender, but even if you're not fully convinced of that claim, you can at least acknowledge that with each quality win (wins over good teams) the D-Backs accumulate, they grow in confidence and belief. That should help them in this game. Don't assume the Padres will obviously respond to Friday's blowout loss with a win over Arizona.
The other reason to pick the D-Backs in this game: Merrill Kelly is 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in his last eight starts against the Padres, per MLB Network. That is hard to bet against.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
You should stay away from this game, since Merrill Kelly is historically very strong against San Diego, but the Padres are in a good bounce-back spot.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5
