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The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Brewers prediction and pick.
Aaron Nola goes to the mound for the Phillies, while Adrian Houser gets the call for the Brewers.
Aaron Nola is the definition of an inconsistent pitcher. Not a bad one, but an inconsistent one. He shows what he is capable of in one high-quality start, but then can't sustain that form in the next start. Look at his last several starts and you'll see the point very clearly:
Nola pitched seven innings and allowed one run to the Mets on May 5. He then pitched 5 1/3 innings and allowed five runs to the Mariners on May 10. On May 15: seven innings, two runs allowed against the Dodgers. On May 21: 5 1/3 innings, four runs allowed against the Dodgers. On May 26: 8 1/3 innings, one run allowed against the Braves. On June 1: six innings pitched, five runs allowed against the Giants. Nola at his best is terrific, but he pitches at a mediocre level every other start. He is a hard one to peg, and therefore a tricky pitcher to incorporate into a Phillies Brewers prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Adrian Houser has a 3.51 ERA. Though slightly more consistent than Nola, Houser has a similar profile. It's not the exact same profile because it doesn't vary as wildly from one start to the next. However, Houser has a mixture of quality starts and bad ones. In his three bad starts — all in the month of May — he gave up 20 runs in 13 innings. In his other seven starts, encompassing 38 1/3 innings, Houser has allowed only nine runs. He has given up just one run in three of his last four starts, so again, he has been more consistent than Nola, but he still has an overall game log this year in which bad starts and great starts coexist, so take that for what it's worth when you make a Phillies Brewers pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Brewers Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+122)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies are sky-high after rallying in the top of the ninth inning on Tuesday against Brewer uber-closer Josh Hader. The best closer in baseball finally blew a save — it took two whole months for that to happen. Hader gave up two solo home runs to turn a 2-1 Milwaukee lead into a 3-2 Philadelphia victory. Even the very best players will have bad games over the course of a long season, but the Phillies noticeably kept their record perfect since the firing of Joe Girardi. They swept the Angels over the weekend and then kept the train rolling in Wisconsin against the Brew Crew. The belief is flooding back into the Philadelphia clubhouse. This is a positive group with a renewed mindset. We know how talented this lineup is. Being able to battle back and win games late — especially against Josh Hader — shows what Philadelphia is capable of. Aaron Nola, when locked in, is a better pitcher than Adrian Houser.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
After Josh Hader blew a save, you know Milwaukee is going to be fired up for this game, trying to fight back against the Phillies. The Brewers are in the midst of one of their worst weeks of the year, having lost a weekend home series against the San Diego Padres. Milwaukee is not getting much hitting right now. The Padres dominated Brewer hitters over the weekend, and the Phils held down the Brewers on Tuesday, facilitating the Phillie comeback. Milwaukee is going to bust out of this slump soon, and Aaron Nola is an inconsistent pitcher who will give them the chance to tee off and hit some dingers in a hitter-friendly yard.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Phillies are a hot team, and the Brewers are cold, but the laws of averages are bound to go the other way. The Brewers are an attractive choice at the given prices.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers +1.5
