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The Philadelphia Phillies take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Cardinals prediction and pick.
Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies, while Miles Mikolas goes to the hill for the Cardinals.
Aaron Nola has a 3.15 ERA. He will have plenty of outings when he gives up two runs or fewer (9), and plenty of outings in which he gives up three runs or more (8). Usually solid and sometimes dominant, Nola has a high floor. The question is where his ceiling is, and how regularly he can reach it. Nola had a 3.92 ERA for the season heading into a June 8 start versus the Brewers in Milwaukee. He dominated in that start against the Brew Crew, pitching eight scoreless innings without issuing a walk. That start began his best run of the year. From June 8 against the Brewers through June 24 against the Padres, Nola was overwhelmingly great. He pitched 30 innings and gave up just three runs. He didn't give up a home run in that stretch. He struck out 30 and walked only three. That version of Nola is a Cy Young winner. However, the fun didn't last. Nola has given up seven runs in his last two starts. He did pitch at least seven innings in each outing, so he still relieved pressure on the bullpen, but it was a notch below his four-start flurry from June. We'll see if he can regain that level of form and sustain it.
Miles Mikolas has a 2.72 ERA. He had a 1.49 ERA on May 11 and was in the Cy Young conversation. Then, in the next several starts, Mikolas got battered. By June 3, his ERA had more than doubled to 3.02. Mikolas regrouped in his next cluster of starts. In four starts from June 9-25 — the same basic time period in which Nola pitched his best ball of the season — Mikolas was nearly as good as his counterpart. Mikolas gave up five earned runs in 29 innings and pushed his year-long ERA down to 2.57. Then, like Nola, the last two starts failed to match the same level of precision as the previous four. In those two recent outings, Mikolas has given up five earned runs in 11 1/3 innings, causing his ERA to rise by nearly one-sixth of a run. Mikolas, like Nola, has a higher gear, but he doesn't always attain it. He'll try to reach it on Monday.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Cardinals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Cardinals Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+136)
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-164)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies have done very well against the Cardinals this year. They won a series in Philadelphia a week ago, and they can win the four-game wrap-around series with a win here on Monday. They shut out the Cardinals both Friday and Saturday. A double-shutout on back-to-back days is extremely rare to begin with; doing so against a lineup with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt is even more impressive. The Phillies did lose on Sunday, but they are in the third wild card spot in the National League and have rallied behind their pitching, which has noticeably stepped up to carry the team in the absence of super-slugger Bryce Harper. The Phillies have to feel good about where they are, and they have to feel great about sending Aaron Nola to the mound, given how many innings he eats up for this team.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
After coming back to win on Sunday against the Phillies, the Cardinals have a refreshed attitude. When teams get mired in very bad and prolonged hitting slumps, as the Cardinals did over the past week, the mood in the clubhouse is terrible. The only real solution is not to think positively; the solution is to win a ballgame and break the spell. Now that the Cardinals have done that, they can move forward, and there's no pitcher they would rather have on the mound than Miles Mikolas, who is dependable and can shut down the Phillies' bats.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
If you think you know which way this game is going to break, be my guest. It's a stay-away selection, since both pitchers are very good and neither team currently has a lot of momentum. One Cardinal win on Sunday doesn't mean St. Louis has turned the corner. If you insist on making a pick, lean to the Cardinals.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals -1.5
