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The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants will finish their weekend series in San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Phillies-Giants prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Phillies are 73-60, third place in the NL East, but holding on to the final NL Wild Card spot. The team is finally playing up to its potential after struggling early in the season, prompting the dismissal of Joe Girardi. Now, interim manager Rob Thompson has turned the club around.
San Francisco has fallen off a cliff since its 107-win season in 2021, third place in the NL West at 63-68, 27.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. The Giants are on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention, as they sit nine games behind the final NL Wild Card spot.
Here are the Phillies-Giants MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Giants Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-210)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+172)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia will send Ranger Suarez to the mound in this one. Suarez has started 23 games, going 8-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 123.2 innings. Suarez throws a sinker about 42% of the time, and batters have hit just .207 against the sinker. The average exit velocity against Suarez is just 86.6 mph, ranking in the 88th percentile league-wide.
Once a weakness, the Phillies' bullpen was bolstered by trade deadline acquisitions. David Robertson has been great in his second stint with the club, with a 1.54 ERA in his 11 games, striking out 13 in 11.2 innings.Very quietly, Brad Hand has pitched to a 2.21 ERA in 49 appearances, rebounding from a down year in 2021. Andrew Bellatti owns a 3.63 ERA in 49 appearances, which actually improves to a 3.30 mark when you take out his disastrous start.
Philadelphia's offense has been rejuvenated by the return of Bryce Harper, who missed about two months with a broken thumb. In six games in August, Harper returned with a bang, hitting .381 with two doubles and four RBIs. Kyle Schwarber leads the team 36 home runs, 78 RBIs and 66 walks. Rhys Hoskins is second with 26 home runs 25 doubles, plus 64 walks. J.T. Realmuto has hit 14 home runs and 67 RBIs, and leads the team with 17 stolen bases. Nick Castellanos leads the team with 27 doubles, adding 13 home runs in his first season with the Phillies. Alec Bohm has been overshadowed by others in the lineup, but leads the team with a .291 batting average, adding 10 home runs and 20 doubles.
Philadelphia is seventh in the league with 165 home runs and is tied for third with 88 stolen bases.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
Despite the team's struggles, Carlos Rodon, Sunday's starting pitcher, has been brilliant in his first season in San Francisco. Rodon has gone 12-7 with a 3.03 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 151.1 innings. Rodon has struck out 31.4% of batters faced, ranking in the 92nd percentile, while walking just 7.4%. Batters have combined to hit just .211 against Rodon's fastball and slider, two pitches he has combined to throw about 92 percent of the time.
The Giants' bullpen has been brutal, but there are some bright spots in the group. Jarlin Garcia has pitched to a 2.77 ERA in 49 appearances, and John Brebbia owns a 2.60 ERA in 62 appearances, 59 of which have come out of the bullpen. Young closer Camilo Doval, poised to be a bullpen fixture for years to come, has saved 19 games, with a 2.78 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 55 innings.
San Francisco's offense has labored all season, ranking in the middle or the bottom half of league in most offensive categories.
Joc Pederson leads the Giants with 21 home runs, adding 17 doubles and a .271 batting average. Wilmer Flores is second with 16 home runs, and is tied with Pederson with 61 RBI, leading the team with 25 doubles. Mike Yastrzemski has seen his average crater, but still has 12 home runs and 24 doubles, with an impressive 53 walks, leading the team. Between injuries and inconsistency, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford have taken steep downfalls since their 2021 resurgence.
San Francisco is desperate for improved offense, and hyped prospect Joey Bart has struggled since taking over for Buster Posey. It was believed that Bart was the catcher of the future, but that light may be dimming after his struggle to acclimate to the big leagues. Thankfully, the Giants will not have to score many runs with Rodon on the hill.
Final Phillies-Giants Prediction & Pick
Carlos Rodon is simply too good to bet against in this one.
Final Phillies-Giants Prediction & Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (+172), under 7.5 (-118)
