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The Boston Red Sox will host the Kansas City Royals for the third of a four-game set on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Royals-Red Sox prediction and pick.
Boston will be looking to clinch the series victory after defeating the Royals in two tight games. Kansas City has given Boston all it can handle in two high-scoring games decided by a single run. These teams combined to score a total of 24 runs through the first two outings.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Royals-Red Sox odds.
MLB Odds: Royals-Red Sox Odds
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-129)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+109)
Over 10.5 Runs (-123)
Under 10.5 Runs (+103)
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
The Royals have been competitive, but this current 10-game road trip has ultimately been a tough one. They are 1-7 on the trip following a series loss in New York, a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers, and now this series with Boston. The Royals have been putting runs on the board, but it's the pitching that has been exploited over this rough stretch.
Kansas City is currently averaging 4.15 runs per game this season, which ranks 20th in the majors. They've put 11 runs on the board during this series and have a knack for getting big hits. Whit Merrifield is always a tough out in this lineup and Salvador Perez is providing a ton of pop in the middle of the lineup. The pitching, on the other hand, has been disastrous for the Royals. Kansas City gives up just under five runs per game and has served up 13 runs in this series.
The Royals will turn to veteran left-hander Mike Minor for the third game of this series. Minor enters this start with a 6-5 record and 5.12 ERA through 16 starts. He is coming off a forgettable start in which he gave up nine runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers. A promising sign for Minor was his last start against the Red Sox. He held Boston to just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work only a few starts ago.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox are on an absolute tear, as they swept the Yankees over the weekend and haven't skipped a beat with two straight wins against the Royals in this series. Boston stands alone atop the AL East and currently holds a five-game winning streak. The Red Sox have been taking care of business against subpar teams and will look to continue that trend against a reeling Royals club once again.
Boston has been tearing the cover off the ball this season. They are currently averaging 5.05 runs per game, which is the third-best mark in all of baseball. They have scored 31 runs over their last five games, many by way of the long ball. The Red Sox possess one of the best trios in Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers. Boston is averaging 5.50 runs per game in the last 10 head-to-head matchup's with the Royals.
The Red Sox will send out left-hander Martin Perez as they look to clinch the series. Perez has put together a solid season with a 5-4 record and 4.09 ERA through 15 starts. The southpaw is coming off a rough start that saw three unearned runs cross the plate through 3 2/3 innings of work against the Yankees. He has been struggling over his past four starts and will be in a nice bounce-back spot against a Royals squad that is 9-13 against left-handed starters this season.
Final Royals-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
I'm actually going to fade the past two games and take the under is this affair. A lefty-lefty matchup could actually benefit the pitchers in this outing. The Royals have struggled against southpaws, while the Red Sox struggled to hit Mike Minor the last time they saw him. I expect a regression to come from these lineups soon, and this seems like a good matchup to exploit that. Look for both teams to make adjustments in attempt to limit the red-hot bats.
FINAL PICK: Under 10.5 Runs (+103)
