Subscribe
Follow Us
The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers will close out a three-game set in Arlington on Wednesday. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Tigers-Rangers prediction and pick.
The Tigers and Rangers have split the first two games of this series, which means that we have an exciting rubber match on our hands. The Tigers roared to a 7-3 victory on Monday and the Rangers rebounded with a 10-5 victory of their own on Tuesday. The third game will feature a solid pitching matchup between two teams that sit toward the bottom of the American League.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Tigers-Rangers odds.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Rangers Odds
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-145)
Texas Rangers -1.5 (+125)
Over 8 Runs (-111)
Under 8 Runs (-109)
Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread
The Detroit Tigers have actually been playing very competitive baseball over the past few weeks. They have won five of their last seven games and now sit 11.5 games in the AL Central at 39-47. The Tigers have been tearing the cover off of the baseball lately and the pitching staff is steadily improving. Detroit is certainly still at least a year away from any sort of relevance, but they are definitely improving before our eyes.
The Tigers have scored at least five runs in each of their last four games and in seven of their last eight. They are now averaging 4.13 runs per game this season, which ranks 24th in the league. Their offensive numbers have been slightly better, but their pitching staff takes a huge tumble in road games. Detroit's -0.98 run differential in road games is directly associated with the fact that they allow 5.33 runs per game.
Article Continues Below
Detroit will turn to right-hander Casey Mize for the rubber match. Mize has been impressive this season with a 5-5 record and 3.55 ERA through 16 starts. The young right-hander is on a bit of an innings restriction, which means he may only last three or four innings in this start regardless of performance. He allowed two runs over three innings against the White Sox in his last start.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
The Texas Rangers are undoubtedly one of the absolute worst teams in all of baseball this season. They are currently 34-52 and 19 games back in the AL West division. The Rangers have been far more productive in Texas with a 21-22 home record, though. Texas has won four of their last five home games and five of their last six home games against Detroit coming in.
The numbers tell an interesting story as it appears that the Rangers may not be as bad as their record depicts. The offense has struggled with just 4.16 runs per game, but their -0.60 run differential certainly isn't the worst in the Majors. Their defensive numbers drastically improve in Arlington as well. The Rangers average run differential at home is -0.16, which means that they are pretty much in every game that they play in Arlington.
Texas will turn to right-hander Kyle Gibson for the rubber match. Gibson is having one of the best seasons of his career with a 6-0 record and 1.98 ERA through 16 starts. His elite numbers will almost certainly land him on a contender at the trade deadline, but the Rangers get to enjoy at least a few more starts from their ace. Gibson has allowed just three earned runs over his last 18 innings of work.
Final Tigers-Rangers Prediction & Pick
Although I love what Kyle Gibson is doing this season, he isn't Shohei Ohtani. If he were able to step up to the plate and carry this offense as well, I'd have more confidence in his club. The Tigers are 10-5 in their last 15 games and have beaten studs like Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito recently. Casey Mize has been solid for Detroit and I expect him to neutralize the Rangers bats. This will be a close game and I expect Detroit to cover this spread in the rubber match.
FINAL TIGERS-RANGERS PREDICTION AND PICK: Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-145)
