Subscribe
Follow Us
The Minnesota Twins take on the Houston Astros. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Astros prediction and pick.
Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Twins, while Framber Valdez takes the bump for the Astros.
Dylan Bundy has a 1.88 ERA in his last three outings. He posted a 6.98 ERA in his previous four starts. You obviously have to make the determination that Bundy will either maintain momentum or run into a roadblock in Houston. He has not been an easy pitcher to figure out or bet on this season. Just when you think he's going in one direction, he veers in the opposite direction.
Framber Valdez is the owner of a very special achievement in the 2022 season: He has delivered 20 straight quality starts for Dusty Baker and the Astros. Only two of his outings all season long have not been quality starts, and they were both in April. His last non-quality start was April 19. Valdez is 21 of 23 this season in pitching a quality start when he takes the mound. That is phenomenal consistency, and what it also means is that Valdez is always pitching through the sixth inning. Knowing they will get at least six innings, usually seven, in a Framber start enables the Astros to rest their bullpen and allocate innings much more evenly to all members of the pen. The domino effect this has on a full pitching staff is enormous.
Valdez won't get Cy Young Award publicity or buzz — that belongs to his teammate, Justin Verlander — but the enormity of his contributions to the team is not lost on any member of the Astros. You can be sure of that.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Astros Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-106)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-113)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins were 2 of 26 with runners in scoring position in a disastrous four-game series against the Rangers. Then Justin Verlander no-hit them for six innings on Tuesday. Let's be honest: The Twins are not in a great position right now. However, it remains really hard — and an act of defiance toward the laws of averages — to hit as poorly as the Twins have over the past several days. They are bound to bust out of the slump, even against a pitcher as good as Framber Valdez. A good pitcher can be rolling along and then run into a team which has slumped for a week and is ready to finally land some big hits in big situations. The laws of averages tell you the Twins will win.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
Alex Bregman is hitting .391 with 13 extra-base hits and 18 RBI in his last 12 games. He will propel the Houston offense against the erratic Dylan Bundy, who might be in form right now but often regresses just when it seems he has hit a higher gear.
The main reason to pick the Astros, though, is fortitude-filled Framber. The consistency of Framber Valdez — 20 straight quality starts — is exactly what bettors look for. They know he'll pitch six or seven innings and allow two or three runs, nothing more. Given that Byron Buxton is hurt and out of the Minnesota lineup, it's a really good bet that the Twins won't score more than two runs, as was the case on Tuesday night in Houston.
Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick
It's very hard to bet for the Twins right now. It's very hard to bet against Framber Valdez right now. Any questions?
Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
