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The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees will face off in a doubleheader on Wednesday afternoon and night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Twins-Yankees prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Minnesota Twins had surged to second place in the AL Central, but still sit a game and a half behind the Cleveland Guardians for the lead. Minnesota is 68-65, also trailing the final AL Wild Card spot by six games, making it the division or bust for the playoffs to become reality.
Much has been written and talked about the Yankees' recent “collapse”. For a team that is 81-54, leading their division by four and a half games, these may seem like an overreaction. Well, those who think of this as an exaggeration must not be in New York. In a city starved for a championship, any inconvenience in that quest is seen as the end of the world.
Here are the Twins-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Yankees Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-156)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+130)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota will send Louie Varland to the mound to make his Major League debut in this one. Varland was drafted by Minnesota in the 15th round of the 2019 draft from Concordia (Minnesota), a local Division II program. Varland cruised through the minors, making 25 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Varland's fastball is electric, sitting in the mid-90s and reaching as high as 98 in games and triple-digits in workouts. An average slider and above-average changeup round out Varland's arsenal, and he is projected to have big-league average command.
Minnesota's bullpen is pretty average, ranking 18th with a 3.88 ERA. Star rookie Jhoan Duran has taken the baseball world by storm, with a 1.82 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 59.1 innings. Duran averages 100.7 mph on his fastball, but it is his curveball that is so lethal to opponents. Batters have hit just .116 against the curveball, striking out 35 times. Griffin Jax has rebounded from a brutal 2021, now pitching to a 3.34 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 62 innings.
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Minnesota's offense is certainly missing Byron Buxton, who has only played in 92 games this season with various injuries. Carlos Correa was the big-time offseason addition and has produced a solid season thus far. Correa is tied for second on the team with 16 home runs, hitting .270, and has been worth 3.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference. Jorge Polanco is tied with Correa with 16 home runs, adding 16 doubles and a team-leading 64 walks. Correa and Polanco have been one of the better middle infield combos offensively.
Gary Sanchez, acquired from the Yankees, has hit 14 home runs with much-improved defense behind the plate. Gio Urshela was also acquired in the same deal, and has hit 11 home runs with 22 doubles. Rookie Jose Miranda has impressed, belting 13 home runs with a .274 batting average. Luis Arraez, the team's leading hitter at a .314 clip, also leads the team with 24 doubles. Arraez has added eight home runs, easily his career high, and has walked more than he has struck out.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York will give the ball to Domingo German in this one. German has pitched well in limited duty, with a 3.12 ERA in his nine starts. However, looking at the underlying numbers, German is due for regression. German's expected ERA is 4.44, more than a full point higher than his actual mark, meaning that he has run into a string of good luck with batted ball outcomes. Going positively for German is his solid control, as he has walked just 5.5% of the batters he has faced, which ranks in the 86th percentile in the league.
New York's bullpen has been lights out, with a 3.02 ERA that ranks second in the league. Despite recent struggles, Clay Holmes has been one of the better relievers in baseball, with a 2.38 ERA and 19 saves in 53 innings. Holmes has struck out six in four innings since returning from the Injured List, allowing just one earned run. Lefty Wandy Peralta has quietly enjoyed a great season, with a 2.63 ERA in his 51.1 innings. Rookie Ron Marinaccio has been simply dominant, with a 1.80 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 35 innings. Batters have hit a miserable .125 combined against both his fastball and changeup, with the two pitches accounting for 35 of his 41 strikeouts.
One name matters when discussing New York's offense and that is Aaron Judge. Judge should be the AL MVP, blasting 54 home runs with 117 RBI and a .302 batting average, with 15 stolen bases to boot. Judge has been the healthiest player in a lineup that has seen many key players miss time. Giancarlo Stanton has not fully found his rhythm since returning from injury, but has 24 home runs this season. Gleyber Torres has drawn the ire of the fan base, but has 41 extra-base hits this season, with a lot of streaky play mixed in. As a team, New York paces the league with 210 home runs and 510 walks.
Final Twins-Yankees Prediction & Pick
It may be recency bias, but the Yankees never seem to do well against rookies, but a tight division race should be enough motivation for them in this one.
Final Twins-Yankees Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+130), over 7.5 (-110)
