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The Chicago White Sox take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our White Sox Giants prediction and pick.
Lance Lynn takes the hill for the White Sox, while Alex Cobb goes to the mound for the Giants.
Lance Lynn has made only three starts, and none of them have been impressive. He did pitch into the seventh inning in his most recent start against the Orioles on June 25, and it should be noted that some of the five runs he allowed were inherited runners the bullpen allowed to score, but it remains that Lynn has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits in 16 innings pitched. Lynn has not yet found his rhythm upon returning to action from an injury which kept him off the field for the first two months of the season. It's a situation where we are waiting to see if Lynn finds his rhythm, needs more time to gain a groove, or doesn't find a rhythm at all in 2022. Which scenario will accurately describe his journey?
Alex Cobb has a 5.09 ERA. What stands out the most about Cobb is that he just doesn't eat up many innings per start. He has made 10 starts this season for San Francisco and yet has pitched just 46 innings. In each of his last two starts, Cobb has not pitched more than 4 1/3 innings. One could make a point about how he hasn't given up more than two runs in a majority of his last seven starts, but the value of that point is eliminated when you realize how short his outings are. When a pitcher is pitching six or seven innings per start, giving up no more than two runs in an individual start really means something. That's an ERA of three runs or lower. When, on the other hand, a pitcher is giving up two runs in most of his starts, but those starts are usually 4 1/3 innings, that's an ERA of well over four runs. Cobb has been a four-run ERA pitcher for most of this season. His especially bad starts — seven runs allowed to the Rockies on May 17, six runs allowed to the Mets on May 23 — pushed his overall ERA over five runs.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the White Sox-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: White Sox-Giants Odds
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-160)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+132)
Over: 7.5 (-114)
Under: 7.5 (-106)
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Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
Alex Cobb has simply not earned enough trust based on his performances this season. He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't pitch very many clean innings. The White Sox are dealing with some injuries, but every now and then, they do bust out and score in bunches, as in their 11-4 win over the Angels earlier this week. Against a weak pitcher, this offense can still do damage despite its injury-based limitations. Lance Lynn was not terrible in his last start and has the ability to give Chicago a quality start.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
Lance Lynn has just not found a groove yet this year for the White Sox. He is a vulnerable pitcher who has to show he can return to his previous standard before anyone should bet on him to deliver a win to his team. The Giants are coming off a loss to the Detroit Tigers and should be very intent on putting together solid at-bats in this game.
Final White Sox-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Giants' offense sputters, but against Lance Lynn, it should do well. Alex Cobb usually pitches 4 1/3 to five innings and gives up a few runs. The total is noticeably low, given the mediocre quality of the pitchers involved. The over is a great play here.
Final White Sox-Giants Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5
