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The Chicago White Sox take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our White Sox Twins prediction and pick.
Johnny Cueto takes the mound for the White Sox, while Sonny Gray gets the assignment for the Twins.
Johnny Cueto still has it, posting a 2.91 ERA for the Sox. He didn't make his first appearance until May 16 of this season, and it was natural to wonder if his body was going to hold up this season. The White Sox have to like what they have seen from the accomplished veteran. His ERA briefly rose to 3.53 — the highest it has been all year — on June 12, but Cueto has dragged his ERA below three runs with a couple of scoreless outings: seven scoreless innings against the Astros on June 18, and eight scoreless innings in his most recent start versus the Tigers on July 9. Cueto's most frequent results in terms of earned runs allowed per start: three (5 times) and zero (4 times). He is competent on his worst days, excellent on his best days. He doesn't allow starts to fully unravel, either. He consistently pitches into the sixth inning and keeps the game close even if he doesn't have his best stuff.
Sonny Gray has a 3.03 ERA, but if you want to predict how he will perform, his results can't be viewed as part of a whole cloth. Gray has essentially had three different seasons. He missed three weeks in late April and early May. He then pitched for three weeks. He then missed two more weeks in the first half of June before returning to the Twins' rotation for a second time in 2022 on June 15. In Gray's five starts since his June 15 return to the field, he has shown signs of brilliance but has lacked consistency. Two of those five recent starts produced 12 scoreless innings. The other three starts led to 11 earned runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings. Gray has given up eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts. He isn't going in the right direction, but his outcomes have been volatile in recent weeks.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the White Sox-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: White Sox-Twins Odds
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-146)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 8.5 (-114)
Under: 8.5 (-106)
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Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
Johnny Cueto is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in four career starts against the Twins. Minnesota has a top-heavy batting order which, if Cueto can solve, will leave the Twins vulnerable when Cueto gets to the bottom of the order. The Twins are clearly the team to beat in the American League Central, but they have not pulled away from the rest of the pack because their hitters go through slumps and their offense endures prolonged periods with suboptimal production. The Twins' bullpen has been a problem as well, but for the most part, the inconsistent offense has limited the Twins' ceiling. Only in the past three weeks has Minnesota lost a bunch of high-scoring games. Through mid-June, nearly every Minnesota loss occurred when the offense got stifled. Cueto can go to work on this batting order.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game against the White Sox this season and have a plus-18 run differential against Chicago. They have worn out the White Sox, and they love this matchup. Sonny Gray has struggled in recent starts, but the White Sox could be the get-well tonic he needs. Chicago has been the most disappointing team in the American League this season, even more than the Los Angeles Angels. Remember, the Sox won the American League Central quite easily last season. They won the division by 13 games. This was supposed to be a 2021 season in which Chicago rolled to a division title. Instead, the Sox are under .500 and not even in a good position to grab the third and final wild card berth in the expanded American League playoffs. The Twins aren't a great team, but they're a lot better than the Sox, and they seem to know it each time these teams meet.
Final White Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Twins are a better team, but the Sox have the favorable pitching matchup. Go with the under, because Cueto will hold down the Twins, win or lose.
Final White Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5
