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It is an FCS against FBS match-up in Week Zero as Montana State visits New Mexico. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Montana State-New Mexico prediction and pick.
Montana State comes into the game after Brent Vigen led them back to the playoffs last year. It was an eight-win season for the Bobcats. Still, they had disappointing losses to Idaho and Montana down the stretch and then would fall in the second round of the playoffs, 35-34 in overtime to North Dakota State.
Meanwhile, New Mexico struggled in 2023. It was just four wins for the Lobos, including one against Tennessee Tech. They would finish tied for last in the Mountain West, resulting in Danny Gonzales being fired. Bronco Mendenhall would come out from his short retirement and be named the new head coach coming into this year. Mendenhall coached at Virginia from 2016 through 2021, being bowl-eligible in all but his first season and playing in an Orange Bowl.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Montana State-New Mexico Odds
Montana State: -12.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -520
New Mexico: +12.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +385
Over: 54.5 (-115)
Under: 54.5 (-105)
How to Watch Montana State vs. New Mexico
Time: 4:00 PM ET/ 1:00 PM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Click Here for free trial)
Why Montana State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Not only was Montana State one of the best offensive units in FCS last year, but they brought back a ton of that returning production. They bring back a large amount of their offensive lie, including Marcus Wehr, the All-American. They will do the block for Tommy Mellott. Mellott threw for 1,068 yards and ten scores last year while missing some time last year due to injury. Further, he only threw two interceptions all of last year. Mellot is a dangerous runner though. He ran for 690 yards last year and five touchdowns on the ground.
Further, the top two backs for Montana State are back as well. Julius Davis returns after running for 722 yards last year and six scores. He ran for nearly seven yards per carry last year. Further, Jared White is back. He ran for 524 yards and four scores. Scottre Humphrey also makes a return for Montana State after running for 433 yards and eight scores last year. The receiving core did lose two of their top three receivers, but the top man is back. Ty McCollouch is back this year, as are hit 473 yards and five touchdowns from last year.
For all the good, Montana State could struggle at times on defense. They allowed over 130 yards per game on the ground, and in their last two games, gave up 72 combined points.
Why New Mexico Could Cover The Spread/Win
For New Mexico, it will all start with Devon Dampier. The backup last year will be moving into the starting role this year. He threw for 525 yards last season and did not have an interception in his time. He was also a solid runner last year. Dampier ran for 328 yards and four scored as well. Dampier avoided sacks, being sacked just four times. He is a great fit for the new offense that is coming in, plus he showed last year he can work with limited talent around him.
New Mexico will also be replacing their top running back from last year. Still, Andrew Henry is back. The 5'10” 200-pound tailback ran for 350 yards last year and three scores. He also brought in five receptions and another 40 yards. Joining him in the backfield will be former Arizona State back Javen Jacobs. Jacobs did not see the field much last year, but he was a sought-after recruit will great speed that can break open large plays. Large plays were a specialty of Caleb Medford at times last year. He is back on the outside after hauling in 30 catches for 551 yards and two scores. Further, he averaged 18 yards per reception last year.
The major issue last year for New Mexico was the defense. They had just 16 sacks all of last year. To fix that, Bronco Mendenhall and company brought in transfers to fill in those positions. This is a defense filled with transfers, but, as one of the worst defensive units in FBS last year, it is hard to have a situation in which they would be worse.
Final Montana State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
In comparison to their regular competition, Montana State is the far superior team in this game. Comparative to each other, it may be closer. Montana State is a quality FCS program. The last time they played an FBS school, it was a drubbing at the hands of Oregon State. That team was coming off a national title game appearance, and earlier that year, in 2021, had lost to Wyoming. They have struggled against FBS teams in the last ten years. Meanwhile, New Mexico has not been good, but they have not lost to an FCS school since 2011. They may lose in this one, but it will be closer than expected.
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Final Montana State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: New Mexico +12.5 (-105)
