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Week two of the college football season kicks off Thursday night with Murray State and Louisville. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Murray State-Louisville prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Murray State opened their season with a nice victory over Presbyterian. Considering this was a two-win program last year, it was huge for the Racers to get off to a quick start this year in the win. The game saw the Racers' offense firing on all cylinders. They racked up 484 yards, including 231 on the ground. They had 21 first downs and went 8-15 on third down while converting their only fourth down attempt on the road to a 41-point performance. Meanwhile, the defense held Presbyterian to just 196 total yards, and only 99 through the air in the victory.
Louisville is also coming off a win in their first game, the first one coached by Jeff Brohm. It was not as convincing as they would have hoped though, as they were 7.5 points favorites over Georgia Tech. The offense struggled early, managing just two field goals in the first quarter, but the defense kept them in it and they led 6-0 after the first quarter. After giving up two touchdowns to start the second, Kevin Coleman scored the first touchdown of the year for Louisville on a nine-yard pass from Jack Plummer. Still, Georgia Tech would score two more times in the second to take a 28-13 lead into the half.
Louisville came out of halftime hot, scoring ten points in the third quarter, and taking the leading on a Jamari Thrash touchdown in the fourth. Georgia Tech was driving in the fourth to take the lead back, but a fumble followed by a 74-yard run by Jawhar Jordan gave the Cardinals an even bigger lead. The Yellow Jackets would score with 1:07 left, but it was not enough time to make the comeback.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Murray State-Louisville Odds
Murray State: +40.5 (-110)
Louisville: -40.5 (-110)
Over: 54 (-110)
Under: 54 (-110)
How to Watch Murray State vs. Louisville
TV: ACCNetwork
Stream: FuboTV
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Murray State Will Cover The Spread
If Murray State wants to cover, they are going to need to have the same level of the game from the offense as they did in the first. They played three quarterbacks in the first game but it would be unlikely that will happen again unless there is a blowout. DJ Williams played well in the game, throwing for 104 yards and a touchdown on 8-16 passing. Still, he showed some accuracy concerns in the game. He did avoid sacks well, having to scramble out of pressure three times, and avoided sacks in each of them. According to PFF, he has just one turnover-worthy pass, and he also did have one of his on-target passes dropped.
Meanwhile, A'Daryius Jennings ran well. He ran for 50 yards on just nine attempts with a touchdown. Still, there is some concern with the running game. Jawaun Northington took 11 carries for just 40 yards. He struggled when there were not clear holes, and facing a front seven of Louisville that is solid, could lead to some issues. Finally, on offense, Murray State has to hit those big plays again. Kylan Galbreath had one of those, running in a 39-yard touchdown. Taylor Shields had a 51-yard reception for a score as well. Four different receivers have receptions longer than 20 yards in the game, with three of them having receptions over 30. If they can hit those big plays, they could be able to keep it close.
Meanwhile, the defense has to continue to be solid. They were great in coverage in the first game. Charley Alberty was targeted three times in the game, did not give up receptions, and came away with a pick. Meanwhile, starting corner Caldra Williford was targeted three times and has up just one reception. The major issue though was Justus Johnson. He was targeted five times and gave up 60 receiving yards, which was nearly half of the team total.
Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread
Jack Plummer played well in his first game reunited with Jeff Brohm after a year at Cal. In the game, he went 18-31 for 247 yards and three touchdowns, but he did have one interception. He did throw another pass that could have been picked off but was not, and he did a good job avoiding pressure. He dropped back a total of 35 times to pass and was pressured eight times. Four of the times he was able to scramble away and pick up a total of 11 yards. The other four, he was able to evade the pressure and get a throw-off. Plummer was not as efficient as he was last year at Cal, but in his first game, it was solid enough to get the win.
Jamari Thrash also showed up big in his first game with the Cardinals. He was the favorite target of Plummer in the first game. Thrash was targeted nine times and came away with seven receptions. He did not give a drop and was a solid threat on the outside. He was also bringing in a lot of yardage. First, his average yards after catch per reception were 6.1 yards. Considering his average depth of target was 8.8 yards, he was moving the chains every time he saw the ball. Kevin Coleman also had a solid first game. He spent most of his time in the slot, snagging three of his four targets and one for a touchdown. His only missed target was a contested ball that the defense got their hands on. Still, he came down with another one leading to his score.
The defense also did a solid job of putting pressure on the quarterback. While they only had one sack in the game, they pressured the quarterback 11 times. Ashton Filotte was solid, hitting the quarterback twice and hurrying him two other times. Still, there were some issues in coverage. Quincy Riley was targeted three times and gave up two receptions. He stopped them quickly though, allowing just one yard after catch. Josh Minkins, the starting safety, was targeted four times and allowed receptions on all of them, while the other safety Devin Neal allowed three receptions on four targets.
Final Murray State-Louisville Prediction & Pick
Murray State beat a bad Presbyterian school. While they looked good in the process, the level of play difference between the two is massive. Presbyterian is in the lower third of the FCS, while Louisville is in the top half of the ACC type of school. Louisville came away with a win and probably could have been more convincing if the offense did not start slowly. Take Louisville in this one and lay the points.
Final Murray State-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Louisville -40.5 (-110)
