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It will be a superior showdown as the Miami Heat battle the San Antonio Spurs live from Mexico City Arena. It's time for some international basketball and time for us to continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Spurs prediction and pick.
The Heat defeated the Houston Rockets 111-108 on Thursday night. Tyler Herro produced a career-high 41 points and nailed 10 3-pointers. Likewise, he added six rebounds and distributed two assists. Jimmy Butler added 20 points while shooting 7 for 13 from the field with 10 rebounds. Ultimately, the Heat thrived despite playing only eight players. Ben Adebayo sat out with an ankle injury.
The Spurs lost 128-112 to the Portland Trailblazers at home on Wednesday. Keldon Johnson scored 25 points while shooting 10 for 16 from the floor. Additionally, he produced seven rebounds. Keita Bates-Diop added 13 points while shooting 5 for 6 from the field. Doug McDermott came off the bench to score 14 points while shooting 5 for 9 from the floor and 3 for 5 from the triples.
The Heat are 6-4 over their last 10 games and 6-9 on the road this season. Conversely, the Spurs are 3-7 over the last 10 games and 5-11 at home. It technically will be a Spurs “home game” despite the game being in Mexico City. Significantly, the Heat are 7-3 over the last 10 games against the Spurs.
The Heat have played one game in Mexico City, having lost to the Brooklyn Nets 101-89 in December 2017. Meanwhile, the Spurs have played in Mexico City six times, suffering a 121-119 overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns in 2019.
Here are the Heat-Spurs NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Spurs Odds
Miami Heat: -7.5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs: +7.5 (-110)
Over: 222.5 (-110)
Under: 222.5 (-110)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Heat have four players that can deliver consistently. Significantly, any of them could lead the charge on any given night. Butler averages 21.6 points per game while shooting 52.5 percent from the field. Additionally, he is shooting 35.9 percent from beyond the arc. Butler also averages 6.9 rebounds per game and six assists per contest. Meanwhile, Herro averages 21.2 points per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the floor. Herro also shoots 41.6 percent from the triples and pulls down 6.3 rebounds per game.
Adebayo did not play Thursday night, but he can provide a major difference if he suits up. Significantly, he averages 20.6 points per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the floor. Adebayo also pulls down 6.3 rebounds per game. Moreover, he could provide a boost on the floor. Kyle Lowry averages 14 points per game while shooting 40.1 percent from the field. Additionally, he shoots 35.3 percent from beyond the arc.
The Heat are struggling to score, ranking 26th in points and 26th in field goal percentage. However, they have thrived at the charity stripe, ranking second in free throw percentage. But Miami also ranks 21st in three-point shooting and 27th in rebounding. Significantly, they are careful with the ball, ranking sixth in turnovers but have not played well on the defensive end, ranking 30th in blocked shots.
The Heat will cover the spread if they can capitalize on their strengths and hide their weaknesses. Therefore, they must continue to hit their shots at the line while also protecting the ball. Miami also must shoot better from the floor and play better defense to avoid bad stretches.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
The Spurs are not a great team. However, they still have the best coach of all time and are capable of gameplanning for anyone. Johnson averages 21 points per game while Devin Vassell averages 19.9 points per game with 45.2 percent shooting from the field. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl averages 12.9 points per game, with 64 percent shooting from the field.
The Spurs do not score consistently, ranking 22nd in points, 19th in field goal percentage, and 23rd in three-point shooting percentage. Additionally, they are only 28th from the charity stripe. The Spurs also are 23rd in rebounding and 27th in turnovers. Likewise, they are 23rd in blocked shots. The Spurs have weaknesses across the board. Additionally, they have gone through numerous stretches where they allow too many points. Can the Spurs contain the stars the Heat have?
The Spurs will cover the spread if they can score early and control the pace of the game. Substantially, the best way for San Antonio to steal this one would be to slow the pace and play top defense.
Final Heat-Spurs Prediction & Pick
The Heat are not having a great season and are 15-15. Yet, somehow, they are tied for first place in the weak Southeast Division. Miami still has time to turn things around. Conversely, the Spurs are 9-19 and dead in the water. Talent will win out over coaching in this showdown, and the Heat will outlast the Spurs in a thriller in Mexico City.
Final Heat-Spurs Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat: -7.5 (-110)
