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The NBA playoffs are now in full swing, and we've already seen some great basketball in the first round, especially from some of the game's superstars. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a prediction and pick for the 2023 NBA Finals MVP.
While we won't know the winner for a couple of months, we can get the best values right now.
Here are the NBA odds for the Finals MVP, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: NBA Finals MVP Odds
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +410
Jayson Tatum: +430
Joel Embiid: +750
Kevin Durant: +800
Nikola Jokic: +950
Jaylen Brown: +1300
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Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis went down with a back injury in a collision with Kevin Love in Sunday's loss to Miami. He's still “sore” and was unable to practice Tuesday but his MRI came back “clean,” Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer told The Athletic’s Eric Nehm.
The two-time league MVP, who is once again a finalist, is the NBA's fifth-leading scorer (31.1 points per game) and ranks third in rebounds (11.8 per game) this season. It's an open question how soon Antetokounmpo will be back to full strength, but he seems to be trending in the right direction to play ahead of Game 2's clash with Miami at home Wednesday night.
The Greek Freak won this award two years ago and remains the slight favorite for the top-seeded Bucks. Given Milwaukee's odds of making it back to the title game, Antetokounmpo is a strong value at this point.
Jayson Tatum
The NBA's sixth-leading scorer (30.1 points per game) is an All-NBA nominee for the second-seeded Celtics, who mounted their largest first-half lead (30 points) since Game 1 of the 1985 NBA Finals in Sunday's 112-99 victory over Atlanta. They then followed it up with another comfortable 13-point win Tuesday night.
Already a four-time All-Star selection, Tatum, 25, took his game to new heights this season, especially down the stretch, when he propelled himself into the MVP conversation. Teammate Jaylen Brown says he's seen a different side of Tatum after the Celtics came up short in last year's NBA Finals against Golden State.
Joel Embiid
The Sixers' star center led the league in scoring (33.2 points per game) for a second straight season and he's the favorite to win the MVP award over the other two finalists, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic.
Embiid beat Jokic by two votes in the final straw poll of 100 media members conducted by ESPN's Tim Bontemps and he received 50 percent of the 102 votes in an anonymous player poll conducted by The Athletic.
Facing the fourth-best odds to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy, Philadelphia would likely have to go through each of the two frontrunners—Boston and Milwaukee—to win its third-ever championship. During the regular season, the 76ers went 1-3 against the Celtics and split the series, 2-2, with the Bucks.
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If you believe the 76ers are truly just hitting their stride — after back-to-back double-digit wins over Brooklyn — and are capable of giving the top two contenders fits, then Embiid could be a steal at this point.
Kevin Durant
The NBA's four-time scoring leader and 13-time All-Star has continued to shine with the Suns, averaging 26.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in games since joining Phoenix (playoffs included), but a valid case can be made that Kevin Durant has the most to prove out of anyone in the postseason this year.
Tied for the third-best odds to win the NBA Finals, Phoenix will need Durant to perform at his best to overcome its series-opening loss against the Clippers and advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Teammate Devin Booker, who is a long-shot (+2300) with the eighth-best odds, could be flying the under the radar after dropping a whopping 38 points while dishing out nine assists in the Suns' 123-109 win Tuesday night.
Nikola Jokic
Another finalist for the league's MVP award, Nikola Jokic led Denver to the best record in the Western Conference and narrowly missed out on becoming just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double this season, posting 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game.
The Nuggets have the fifth-best odds to win this year's championship, so Jokic—who is questionable with a right wrist sprain—will have to do plenty of the heavy lifting to overcome a tough road in the postseason.
On the bright side, the Nuggets are battle-tested. They split their four-game regular game series with the Suns and Lakers, and they split their two-game series with the Bucks, Sixers, and Celtics. They also swept the Clippers and Warriors and won two of their three meetings with the Kings during the regular season.
Jaylen Brown
The NBA's ninth-leading scorer (26.6 points per game) is an All-NBA nominee for the Celtics, who look poised to have another very favorable matchup against the Sixers in the Conference Finals and remain the slight favorites to win it all in June.
Brown was prolific with 29 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1 against Atlanta, and while he was less effective in both departments in Game 2, he was a menace on defense, racking up a pair of blocks and three steals.
The two-time All-Star is capable of taking over games on both ends of the court, but he's not consistent enough to trust as a viable long-shot to take home the NBA Finals MVP, assuming Boston stays healthy.
NBA Finals MVP Winner Prediction & Pick
While some of the long-shots offer intrigue for potentially exceptional value, including the aforementioned Jokic (+950) and Devin Booker (+2300), along with De'Aaron Fox (+3500) and Donovan Mitchell (+5000), Antetokounmpo and Tatum are the safest bets and still offer very strong value at this point in the postseason. With Boston up (2-1) against Milwaukee in the regular season, I'll roll with Tatum and the Celtics to continue the trend and bounce back from last year's Finals loss.
NBA Finals MVP Winner Prediction & Pick: Jayson Tatum: +430
