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The Cleveland Cavaliers (17-10) visit the San Antonio Spurs (8-18) on Monday night. Action tips off at 8:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Cavaliers-Spurs prediction and pick.
Cleveland has gone just 2-2 over the last four games but still sits in third place in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are 15-10-2 against the spread while 63% of their games have gone under. San Antonio has won two straight games but remains in 14th place in the Western Conference. The Spurs are 11-15 against the spread while 56% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams. Cleveland took both games last season.
Here are the Cavaliers-Spurs NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Cavaliers-Spurs Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers: -7.5 (-112)
San Antonio Spurs: +7.5 (-108)
Over: 219 (-110)
Under: 219 (-110)
Why The Cavaliers Could Cover The Spread
The Cavs have been the breakout team of the East this season as they've cemented themselves as a top-three team in the conference thanks to a blistering defense. They are salso olid offensively, ranking 21st in scoring and 12th in offensive rating. Their calling card comes on the other end, however, as they rank first in both points allowed and defensive rating. In addition to their strong defensive numbers, the Cavs are a force on the glass, ranking fifth in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love are both notably questionable for Monday's game.
While Cleveland's stellar guard play may make the majority of headlines, the Cavs' chances of covering in this one lie on the shoulders of their frontcourt. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen form arguably the best frontcourt duo in the NBA thanks to their all-around games. Allen is the linchpin of the NBA's best defense. In addition to his 14.2 points per game, Allen averages 10.6 rebounds and 2 STOCKS (steals + blocks). Mobley is right there with him. He averages 15 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.3 STOCKS. The twin towers are uniquely capable of protecting the rim and switching onto perimeter ball handlers. They control the paint and on paper, the Spurs don't have anyone to challenge them around the rim.
Regardless of whether Mitchell is active, Cavs backers should have confidence in Cleveland's healthy guards to carry the load. Point guard Darius Garland is the obvious candidate to see an uptick in production, as he ranks second on the team in scoring and leads the team in assists. Despite playing off Mitchell, Garland averages 21.6 points and 7.8 assists. He has been efficient while doing so, shooting 43.1% from the field and 39.4% from 3-point range.
Sixth man Caris LeVert has performed well when stepping into Cleveland's starting lineup — something that may happen again if Mitchell is inactive. He has started 16 games this season in various lineups and averages 12 points and 4.5 assists. LeVert shoots just 38% from the field but is the ultimate heat-check guy. He's coming off back-t0-back 22-point games starting in place of Mitchell — something to keep in mind before making a Cavaliers-Spurs prediction.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
San Antonio's two-game win streak snapped a previous 11-game skid, but they remain one of the worst statistical teams in the league. The Spurs are near the bottom of the league in scoring, ranking 25th in scoring and 29th in offensive rating. They are the worst defensive team in the league as they rank last in both points allowed and defensive rating. San Antonio doesn't do themselves any favors on the glass, ranking 23rd in rebound differential and 22nd in rebound rate. Notably, Jakob Poeltl remains out while Jeremy Sochan is questionable.
If San Antonio is going to cover against a superior Cavaliers squad, they're going to need big performances from young building blocks Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell. Johnson leads the team in scoring, averaging 20.9 points while shooting 40.8% from the field and 34.7% from 3-land. He has been a solid all-around contributor, chipping in 5.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game Johnson has played particularly well lately, averaging 26.7 points and 6.0 rebounds over his last three outings.
Vassell is arguably the biggest X-factor for San Antonio as he's their most efficient scorer. He draws a tough matchup against the league's best defense, but any hope of a Spurs cover lies in his ability to will them to points. For the season. Vassell averages 20.4 points while shooting 46% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point range. Vassell's ability to get to the rim and threaten the defense from the outside is something to keep in mind before making a Cavaliers-Spurs prediction.
Final Cavaliers-Spurs Prediction & Pick
Regardless of whether Mitchell plays, the Cavaliers should roll against one of the worst teams in the league.
Final Cavaliers-Spurs Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 (-112)
