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The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Mavericks for the first time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Grizzlies-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Grizzlies stand at 13-13 overall and 13-12-1 against the spread. Memphis is coming off a blowout loss to the Phoenix Suns.
The Mavericks hold a record of 13-15 overall, and they are only 11-17 against the spread. Dallas is coming off a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers at home.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Grizzlies-Mavericks odds.
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Mavericks Odds
Memphis Grizzlies +5 (-105)
Dallas Mavericks -5 (-115)
Over 232 PTS (-115)
Under 232 PTS (-105)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
While the Grizzlies haven't blown NBA audiences away with their recent performances, the Mavericks haven't been on fire themselves.
While Dallas has won four of five, Luka Doncic's squad has only covered in one of those matchups.
An even better sign for the Grizzlies is that the Mavericks have been nearly incapable of covering significant spreads this season. As five-point favorites or higher, the Mavericks are 1-6 against the spread.
This has been mostly due to the fact that Dallas has been incapable of keeping opponents off the board.
The Mavericks have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. In their last 15 matchups, they have failed to hold an opponent under 100 points while allowing an opponent to score 120 or more seven times.
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Memphis hasn't been a great offensive team (18th in offensive rating), but the Mavericks have made worse teams look unstoppable. The Timberwolves just scored 122 points on Dallas in a shootout loss.
The points should come for Memphis. The Grizzlies main focus should be on containing Doncic.
Doncic has been electric over his last five matchups, averaging 37.2 points and 9.4 assists on 54% shooting from the field and 47.6% from deep.
The Grizzlies can't survive a monster Luka game. If they make the struggling Dallas role players step up and knock down shots, they have a genuine shot of pulling the upset.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
On the defensive end of the floor, both of these teams haven't been stopping their opponents with any consistency.
Both the Grizzlies and Mavericks get torched from the 3-point line. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most 3-pointers in the league, while the Grizzlies have allowed the seventh-most.
In a game that figures to be a high-scoring affair, whoever hits the most 3-pointers will have a serious advantage. Memphis barely shoots better from 3 than Dallas (35.9% to 35.0%), but the Mavericks take more.
Watching the Mavericks launch this year has been a bit head-scratching. Guys like Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr., who are historically solid shooters, have gone through major cold stretches. However, the team is currently on a hot streak.
If this becomes a high-paced game, I like Dallas' odds of winning a shootout, and this is where I see this game heading.
Defensively, the Mavericks will catch a break with the absence of Dillon Brooks, the Grizzlies' best volume shooter at the moment.
Without a key shooter and perimeter defender, the Grizzlies lose a little on both ends. Memphis will have to throw multiple defenders at Doncic all game, and he should be able to find his open guys.
Final Grizzlies-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Even though the Mavericks haven't been impressive against the spread recently, five points is too little for a team that has been explosive on the offensive end recently. Dallas has broken 120 points in four of its last five matchups, while the Grizzlies have broken 115 only three times in their last 10. If the Mavericks can play even a little defense or Memphis goes through a cold stretch, the home team should cover the spread. I'll back Luka and company to get the job done on their home floor.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DAL 122, MEM 114 (DAL -5)
