Subscribe
Follow Us
The Miami Heat (32-27) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (41-17) on Friday night! Action tips off at 7:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Bucks prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Miami dropped their last two games heading into the All-Star break but still sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat covered 38% of their games while 54% went under the projected point total. Milwaukee won 12 straight games to close the first half and sits just one game behind Boston for the first seed in the East. The Bucks covered 58% of their games while 52% went under. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the conference foes. Milwaukee holds a 2-1 advantage thus far and notably won the most recent matchup at home 123-115.
Here are the Heat-Bucks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Bucks Odds
Miami Heat: +1.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 219 (-110)
Under: 219 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Bucks
TV: ESPN, Bally Sun, Bally Wisconsin
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/ 4:30 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami is the definition of a defensive-minded team as they rank second in points allowed with 108.3 OPPG but last in scoring with 108.3 PPG. That evens out to a perfectly mediocre 0-scoring margin. That being said, their stout defense will always give them a chance to win games and that is a formula they followed during the first half of the year. Offensively, the Heat are not very efficient but they do a great job of forcing turnovers that lead to open looks. Miami boasts the second-highest turnover rate and will look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that averages the ninth-most turnovers per game.
Article Continues Below
Despite their low-scoring output on a night-to-night basis, the Heat do roster three 20-point-per-game scorers. Jimmy Butler leads the team with 21.7 PPG in addition to 6.0 RPG and 5.1 APG. He remains a pest on the defensive end as his 2.0 steals per game also leads the team. The veteran remains an efficient scorer on the offensive end with a 51% shooting percentage.
Big man Bam Adebayo is right behind Butler as he averages 21.6 PPG in addition to his team-leading 10.0 RPG. Bam is a stout defender despite averaging a career-low 0.8 blocks per game. Additionally, he is a skilled offensive player who can generate easy shots for himself and his teammates. Bam shoots 54% from the floor and 3.3 APG.
With Tyler Herro questionable tonight, Miami could end up relying on Gabe Vincent and Max Strus a lot more than usual. Both sharpshooters ended the first half of the season on a good note. Over their last five games, they averaged 15.6 PPG and 14.0 PPG, respectively. The two combine for 4.4 threes per game and will likely be called upon early and often regardless of Herro's status.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee comes out of the All-Star game as the single-hottest team in the league. Winners of 12 straight games, the Bucks still find themselves as mere 1.5-point favorites at home. That is largely due to the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is doubtful to play tonight following an injury during All-Star weekend. While the loss of the two-time MVP cannot be overstated, the Bucks remain a deep and well-rounded team and thus they have a great chance to cover tonight against a struggling Heat team.
Assuming Giannis is, indeed, ruled out, look for Jrue Holiday to see a huge uptick in usage. Jrue is quietly having one of his best seasons in recent memory. The 14-year vet averages 19.4 PPG and 7.1 APG. Holiday remains one of the premier perimeter defenders in the NBA despite allowing an uncharacteristically-low 1.3 steals per game. Perhaps the most underrated part of his game is his outside shooting. The 32-year-old averages a career-high 2.4 threes per game while shooting 38% from three. He averaged 22.4 PPG in five games prior to the All-Star break and should easily eclipse that number as the primary option tonight.
The X-factor for Milwaukee tonight is forward Khris Middleton. The first half of the season was one to forget for Middleton as he appeared in just 17 games due to injury. That being said, Middleton appears to finally be rounding into form despite ongoing load management. In three games prior to the All-Star break, Middleton averaged 17 PPG and 6.3 RPG while shooting 49% from the floor. Look for him to potentially have a breakout game with Giannis hurt.
Final Heat-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Even with Giannis out I think there is some value with the Bucks here. They remain an incredibly deep team and should come out on top in what should be a tight matchup.
Final Heat-Bucks Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110)
