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A banged-up Los Angeles Lakers team travels to Arizona to take on the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Lakers-Suns prediction and pick.
The Lakers hold an overall record of 28-14, but they are 21-21 against the spread. They are coming off a loss to the Atlanta Hawks in which they lost LeBron James to an ankle injury.
The Suns’ overall and ATS records are identical at 27-13. Phoenix is coming off a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Lakers-Suns odds.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Suns Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +10 (-113)
Phoenix Suns -10 (-107)
Over 214.5 PTS (-110)
Under 214.5 PTS (-110)
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
The Lakers are expected to be without their entire starting frontcourt in this matchup, with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Marc Gasol all sidelined unless Gasol makes a surprise return.
Without these key players, the Lakers will turn to their sixth-man muscle on offense and a determined team effort defensively.
James and Davis are the Lakers' highest scorers, but Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder rank third and fourth. The good news for Lakers fans is that Harrell has been excellent of late.
Since the All-Star break, Harrell has averaged 19.8 points and 7.8 rebounds on 70% shooting from the field. He was the Lakers' leading scorer against the Hawks and became the go-to guy on the offensive end after LeBron went down.
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Against a stingy Suns defense, the Lakers will need another monster night from their big man.
Defensively, the Lakers allow the second-fewest points in the league. There will be a drop-off with all these absences, but the team should still compete hard on that end.
Phoenix gets just over a third of its points from beyond the arc, the 13th-highest figure in the NBA. It's likely they win the battle in the paint, but if Los Angeles can limit the damage from the perimeter, they could hang around in this one.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns have been one of the hottest teams in the league, both straight up and against the spread. Over their last 10 games, they are 7-3 in both categories.
Phoenix has also been great at covering double-digit spreads. They have covered three out of four times when favored by 10 or more points.
The Suns have been great defensively all season, and they'll catch a break by not having to deal with Davis or James.
Offensively, Phoenix is one of the most efficient teams in the league. They are second overall in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point percentage. The Suns haven't scored below 110 points in the month of March. The Lakers have done it in three of their last seven games.
As good as this Lakers defense is, the Suns' offensive attack is too multifaceted to be completely stopped. Phoenix has seven players averaging double-digit scoring, and it's a good bet at least four of them hit that figure in this one.
One player to specifically watch on Phoenix is Deandre Ayton. Ayton should have a field day against a banged-up frontcourt missing key players.
The Suns' defense should slow the Lakers significantly, and their offense will produce enough to pull out the win.
Final Lakers-Suns Prediction & Pick
The most likely scenario in this game is that the Lakers' offense goes through a cold spell at least once, and the Suns take advantage. I can't see a scenario where Los Angeles keeps pace with Phoenix on the offensive end, and the Suns should pull away early against the shorthanded Lakers. I'll take Phoenix to continue its excellence against double-digit spreads and cover easily here.
FINAL PICK FOR LAKERs-SUNS: PHOENIX SUNS -10
