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The Denver Nuggets will take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Pelicans prediction and pick.
These teams have had vastly different seasons. The Nuggets have earned themselves a decent 26-21 record and the sixth seed in the Western Conference. The Pelicans, on the other hand, have been one of the worst teams in all of basketball. They've gone 18-29 over the course of the season, paving the way for another lottery pick in New Orleans. Despite their vastly different records, this game should be an entertaining one, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Nuggets-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Pelicans Odds
Denver Nuggets: -4 (-115)
New Orleans Pelicans: +4 (-105)
Over: 218.5 (-110)
Under: 218.5 (-110)
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Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
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The Nuggets have pretty much every single statistical advantage in this matchup. Their biggest edge comes on the offensive end, as Denver is one of the best shooting teams in the league. The Nuggets rank inside the top five in the NBA in shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and shooting efficiency. The Pelicans allow their opponents to shoot a whopping 47% from the field, one of the worst marks in the NBA. This is a great matchup for the Denver offense.
There is a strong possibility that the Pelicans enter this game without some of their best players. Starters Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas are all questionable for this matchup. Ingram leads the Pelicans in scoring and assists per game, while Valanciunas leads them in rebounds per contest. Missing both and another starter in Hart would make an already bad Pelicans team even worse.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
While the Nuggets boast a pretty solid record, their numbers against the spread aren't anywhere near as good. Denver has been one of the worst teams in the league at covering, earning a 19-28 record in that category. They're also 11-17 when they enter the game as a favorite, and 9-13 on their home floor. Those are all among the worst records against the spread. Denver often receives too much credit, and they consistently prove they don't deserve that much respect from the bookmakers.
Momentum certainly plays a factor in basketball, and for one of the first times this season, the Pelicans actually have some positive momentum here. New Orleans has won five of their last nine contests, including impressive wins over the Golden State Warriors and the Minnesota Timberwolves. If Ingram and Valanciunas do end up playing here, there's a fighting chance that the Pelicans can pull off an upset.
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Final Nuggets-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
This is a tough pick because of the injury situation surrounding New Orleans. With their starters healthy, the Pelicans seem like a great bet to cover this spread. If Ingram and Valanciunas miss this contest, the under becomes the best pick.
Final Nuggets-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans: +4.5 (-115) OR Under: 218 (-110)
