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The New Orleans Pelicans look to win their third straight game tonight as they face off against the Portland Trail Blazers. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Pelicans-Blazers prediction and pick.
The Pelicans hold a record of 17-22 both overall and against the spread. New Orleans is coming off an impressive blowout win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Blazers stand at 22-16 overall and 19-19 against the spread. Portland is coming off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Pelicans-Blazers odds.
NBA Odds: Pelicans-Blazers Odds
New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 (-105)
Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 (-115)
Over 237.5 Points (-110)
Under 237.5 Points (-110)
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
Looking at the Pelicans last seven games, it's hard to believe the same team with the same personnel can produce such different results.
In the span of two weeks, New Orleans has recorded major upsets against the Clippers and Jazz, and absolutely trounced the Cavaliers. They were also blown out by the worst team in the Western Conference and fell to the Bulls on their home floor.
The biggest factor of the Pelicans success of late is Lonzo Ball. While Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram consistently give the Pels 20 points a night, Ball is the biggest X-factor.
Let's look at the Pels last 20 games. When Ball scores under 14 points, New Orleans is 3-6. When he shoots under 50% from the field, the Pels are 3-7.
In all of the Pelicans biggest wins of the year, Ball has showed out. When they beat the Bucks, Ball dropped a season high 27 points. Against Phoenix, Ball had 18 on 7-13 from the field. In their wins against the Jazz and the Clips, Ball combined to shoot 16-26 from the field and 8-13 from three.
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The Pelicans are a middle of the pack team, but when Ball shoots well, they can topple elite teams.
Against the Blazers tonight, the Pels will need their shooters to come ready. Portland shoots the second most three-pointers in the league, and this game has shootout written all over it.
The Pels don't win games with their defense, they pummel you with buckets. If they're going to win this one, it'll be on the backs of Williamson, Ingram, and Ball on the offensive end.
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
Like the Pelicans, the Blazers aren't really interested in locking down opponents. Both teams give up 115 points per game, fourth and fifth-most in the league.
The main difference between these two has been the three-point defense. While the Pels allow opponents to shoot 39.1% from deep, the third-highest mark in the NBA, the Blazers rank 16th when it comes to limiting opponent three-point percentage.
Giving up the three-point shot is deadly against this Blazers squad. Portland makes the second-most three-pointers in the league and shoots 42 three's a game.
The Blazers live on the perimeter, barely getting any interior buckets. A whopping 42% of Portland's total points have come from beyond the three-point line.
Today, the Blazers will get one of their best shooters back. C.J. McCollum will take the floor for the first time since January 16th.
Before injuring his foot, McCollum was averaging a ridiculous 26.7 points while shooting 44% from deep. Adding him to the lineup gives the Blazers five players shooting 38% or better from three while attempting at least four a game.
Portland has been significantly better in the Moda Center, standing at 11-7 on the year at home. New Orleans has been atrocious on the road, with a 5-12 record.
The Blazers should be amped and ready with the return of McCollum, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them make a statement early tonight in the return of their second-best player.
Final Pelicans-Blazers Prediction & Pick
The Pels have been hot right now, but they are due for some regression. New Orleans has won three straight only once all year, and two of those wins were at home against weak teams. The Pels have shown no consistency all season, and the Blazers are getting a huge emotional and scoring lift with the return of McCollum. I'll take the Blazers to win this one as the Pels continue their road struggles and the Portland shooters hold serve on their home floor.
FINAL PICK: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -1.5
