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The San Antonio Spurs (10-20) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (18-12) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 8 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Pelicans prediction and pick.
San Antonio has lost two of their last three games to drop them to 14th in the Western Conference. The Spurs are 13-17 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone under. New Orleans has lost four consecutive games but still sits in third place in the West. The Pelicans are 15-15 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone over. This will be the third of four meetings between the two teams. New Orleans won both previous matchups in San Antonio by 15+ points.
Here are the Spurs-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Pelicans Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +8.5 (-114)
New Orleans Pelicans: -8.5 (-106)
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
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San Antonio sits near the bottom of the standings and for good reason. The Spurs are a poor offensive team as they rank 26th in scoring and 28th in offensive rating. They are somehow worse on defense, ranking last in both points allowed and defensive rating. The Spurs don't do themselves any favors on the glass with ranks of 18th in rebound differential and 19th in rebound rate. San Antonio listed forward Keldon Johnson as doubtful for tonight's game.
San Antonio is firmly in the lottery sweepstakes but still has a few players who could potentially help them cover a hefty road spread tonight. In their first two matchups, guard Devin Vassell was the only guy who could get much of anything going offensively. Despite the Spurs losing both games, Vassell scored 25 and 26 points respectively. He was red-hot from three in both matchups, making 9/20 threes in the two games. That's been an ongoing trend for Vassell who is in the midst of a breakout year. The third-year guard has upped his scoring to 20 PPG this season while maintaining efficient shooting numbers of 46% from the field and 41% from three. He's slowly developed as a playmaker, having doubled his assist average from last season. Vassell is a major threat to New Orleans' defense and is certainly someone worth keeping in mind before making a Spurs-Pelicans prediction.
Matched up with New Orleans' fearsome frontcourt, San Antonio will need a strong performance from big man Zach Collins. Collins has come on strong as of late, averaging 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds over his last five games while shooting 72% from the field. With the potential absence of Johnson looking, San Antonio would be wise to rely more on their efficient big man. His defense could also come into play tonight as he's averaged a block per game during his recent run of strong play.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
The Pelicans are one of the teams who have taken the biggest leap this season as they are near the top of the standings. New Orleans is a strong all-around team but is particularly fearsome on offense, ranking third in scoring and seventh in offensive rating. They're a solid defensive team as well with ranks of 14th in points allowed and sixth in defensive rating. The Pelicans do a great job rebounding the ball as they rank seventh in rebound differential and ninth in rebound rate. New Orleans will be without Zion Williamson tonight and Larry Nance Jr. is listed as questionable.
New Orleans has a number of skilled players who could aid their chances of covering tonight. In this matchup, however, the guy to watch is Jonas Valanciunas. The burley center is typically more of a role player despite his starting status. He's been a focal point in their two meetings against San Antonio's weak frontcourt, averaging 21.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG while shooting 77% from the field. While he averages just 13.7 PPG for the season, he's likely to have an extended role tonight given the absence of Zion and his previous success against San Antonio.
While the Pelicans will likely rely heavily on their big men, lead guard CJ McCollum will likely serve as the X-factor tonight. McCollum is the steadying force behind New Orleans' success given his experience and consistency. For the season, McCollum averages 18.7 PPG and 5.8 APG while shooting 42% from the field. He struggled mightily in his one previous appearance with San Antonio but given their injury report tonight, you can expect CJ to show up big tonight.
Final Spurs-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
The Pelicans have crushed the Spurs twice already this season and now get to play them at home. Look for New Orleans to bounce back in a big way after a tough stretch of games.
Final Spurs-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -8.5 (-106)
