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The Celtics return to Boston to host the Bucks for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Bucks-Celtics prediction and pick.
This is an incredible series to watch as both teams are battling in the second round. The Bucks stole home-court advantage from the Celtics when they defeated them in Game 1. The Celtics responded with a win and then won Game 4 Monday night to steal back home-court advantage. Khris Middleton remains out for the Bucks as he is a major loss for the defending NBA champs. Robert Williams missed Game 4 for the Celtics with swelling in the knee, but his status is still up in the air for tonight. Regardless if he plays tonight, this game should once again be one for the ages.
Here are the Bucks-Celtics NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Bucks-Celtics Odds
Milwaukee Bucks: +5 (-105)
Boston Celtics: -5 (-115)
Over: 213.5 (-110)
Under: 213.5 (-110)
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Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Anyone who has watched the last two games in Milwaukee knows that the Bucks struggled big time in the fourth quarter. The Celtics came back from double digits in both games as they were able to steal a win last time out. Milwaukee escaped Game 3 with a win, but not after the Celtics battled their way back. For Game 5, the Bucks must hold on to their lead if they have one, or else the Celtics will find a way to creep back up once again.
Giannis Antetokounmpo might be the most dominant one-on-one player on the planet outside of LeBron James and Joel Embiid. What the Greek Freak is able to accomplish against the Celtics is incredible. He's averaging 30.1 points in the playoffs with 7.0 assists and 13.2 rebounds. A majority of his production, however, comes in the second half. The Bucks find a way to get an early lead but Giannis isn't scoring early on in the game. His first field goal didn't come until he dunked the ball with less than a minute remaining in the first quarter of Game 4. He ended with 34 points, but 28 of them came after the first.
If the Bucks want to cover this spread, they can not collapse in the 4th quarter. It's as simple as that because they are doing everything else right. They are defending hard and taking advantage of their offense in transition. If that is indeed the case, then the Bucks should have zero issues covering a spread where they are being handed five points. The TD Garden is not an easy venue to play in, so the Bucks will have to be on top of their game. The fans in Boston will be a factor tonight, you can bet on that.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
Boston played phenomenal in the second half of Game 4. Opposite to the Bucks, the Celtics are finding ways to close out games. Their issue, however, is firing out of the gates. The Celtics struggle in the first quarter and have done so in every game of this series besides Game 2. In both games in Milwaukee, the Celtics failed to reach 20 points in the first. If it weren't for the Celtics' No. 1 defense in the NBA, they could easily be down 3-1 right now.
Another reason they are not down 3-1 right now is because of the likes of Al Horford. Big Al played the game of his life in Game 4 finishing with 30 points on 11-14 shooting and 5-7 from beyond the arc. The veteran defended Giannis when needed, made clutch shots, and dunked on the former MVP that really propelled the Celtics' comeback. Horford ended with eight rebounds and three assists to show that his value is needed right now. If Horford continues his success and plays well again Wednesday night, then the Celtics' chances of covering this spread increase.
The team is back in Boston where they played very well all season long. They ended (28-13) at TD Garden and the Bucks finished the regular season (24-17) on the road. Both teams are good wherever they play, so this should once again be a close battle. The Celtics clearly need stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to continue to play well as they have no chance without their success.
Final Bucks-Celtics Prediction & Pick
The Celtics are favored by five points here at home. Boston won by eight in Game 4 but I still think that five points are too much to feel comfortable here. The Celtics should win this game, but I think it will be by less than five points in an intense Game 5.
Final Bucks-Celtics Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +5 (-105)
