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Game 5 is upon us! The Heat are back in Miami looking to bounce back after a blowout. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Celtics-Heat prediction and pick.
The Celtics dominated the Heat in Game 4 from the very first basket. The Heat scored their first field goal of the game with 3:22 left in the first quarter. Yes, you read that right. The Heat had one single point for over seven minutes of that first quarter. They ended the quarter with 11 points and from there … it was over already. The Celtics did their job by evening the series and making a huge statement by winning by 20.
The Heat should be embarrassed and that will be a good motivator for tonight. They couldn't do anything right in Game 4 after dominating the Celtics in Game 3. This entire series has been blowouts for the winning team. Hopefully, Game 5 is different and a closer game for the sake of basketball. Injuries have been an issue for both sides but it's looking like both teams might be healthier for this matchup.
Here are the Celtics-Heat NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Celtics-Heat Odds
Boston Celtics: -2.5 (-110)
Miami Heat: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 204 (-110)
Under: 204 (-110)
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Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
The first quarter seems to be the most important quarter of this series. I believe that whoever controls the first quarter will go on to control a majority of this game. However, that doesn't mean that they will win. This series has been back and forth the entire time and it's difficult to know what will happen today.
As for the Celtics, they are feeling great after a huge win. Ime Udoka needs his team to play with the same aggression they had in Game 4 after a loss … for Game 5 after a win. If the Celtics can play the same style in back-to-back games, then the Celtics should go on to win this series.
Jayson Tatum bounced back after a horrible Game 3 and finished with 31 points. The Celtics did not have Marcus Smart but it was obvious he was not needed in that game. Miami did not show up and put up one of the worst offensive performances you will ever see from a professional basketball team. With Smart scheduled to return for Game 5, the Celtics' defense will get even tougher for the Heat to get back on track. Smart and Robert Williams are both listed as questionable at the moment but are expected to play.
If Boston wants to cover this spread on the road, they must keep the same energy they had last time out. The Heat will not play that poorly again and so the Celtics need to expect a tougher battle tonight.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has no other choice but to have one of the better games of the season tonight. With how poorly they played in Game 4, it's tough to see how they can drastically improve off of that performance. The Heat ended with 82 points but the good news is that they're back in Miami where they played great all season long. The Heat finished with a (29-12) record at home but the Celtics were good on the road this season at (23-18). Remember, Boston won Game 2 in Miami.
One person the team needs back is Tyler Herro. He missed the last game with soreness in his groin. PJ Tucker and Jimmy Butler are also banged up but they will be playing. Herro is questionable but said before Game 4 that he should be good to go for tonight. The offense for the Heat was awful last game and it needed Herro's ability to create offense. With his ability to shoot off the dribble and create passing lanes for the offense, he is crucial. Miami needs his shooting with how elite the Celtics defense is right now.
Kyle Lowry is nonexistent right now. That is not a good sign for the Heat because their starting point guard is failing to show up in this series. Lowry ended with three points in Game 4 while only taking six shots. Even when they were without Herro, Lowry did nothing to contribute to that game. That can not happen again. Butler also finished with just six points off of (3-14) shooting. The good news for Miami is that it's extremely hard not to improve on that performance.
Final Celtics-Heat Prediction & Pick
My gut is telling me the Celtics are the right call to make here. Miami is the underdog at home which is rare in the playoffs, but it's for the right reason. I expect the Celtics to continue their play and take Game 5 in Miami with a chance to win the series at home in Boston.
Final Celtics-Heat Prediction & Pick: Boston Celtics -2.5 (-110)
