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The Boston Celtics will take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a potentially decisive Game 6. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Celtics-Bucks prediction and pick.
This series has been the most entertaining one of the postseason so far. After a dominant Milwaukee victory in Game 1, these teams traded off wins, with the Bucks taking Game 5 in a big way. The series was tied at two games apiece, but Milwaukee's defense held things down to secure the win late in the fourth quarter. Point guard Jrue Holiday deserves a ton of recognition for two elite defensive plays that may have saved his team's season. Holiday and the Bucks will look to put away the series in what should be an exciting matchup. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Here are the Celtics-Bucks NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Celtics-Bucks Odds
Boston Celtics: +1.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 212.5 (-110)
Under: 212.5 (-110)
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Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
While Milwaukee's defense has been elite, the Celtics haven't been too bad on that end of the floor either. Boston has only allowed the Bucks to surpass 108 points once in the series in Game 5. In order to break that threshold, the Bucks had to shoot an incredible 43% from three-point range. Milwaukee should cool down significantly in Game 6, and that should allow the Celtics to put on another elite defensive performance.
In all of their losses, the Celtics shot uncharacteristically poorly. In Game 1, Boston only shot 37% from the field. During Game 3, a contest that which the Celtics only lost by two points, they shot 36% from the field and 27% from three-point range. The Bucks are a good defensive team, but they aren't good enough to hold Boston to those defensive numbers consistently. There's good reason to believe that the Celtics will improve offensively and keep this game extremely competitive.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
In both games the Celtics have won in this series, they've relied on huge scoring days from guys who don't typically contribute offensively. In Game 2, backup forward Grant Williams put up 21 points with the help of a 6/9 shooting day from beyond the arc. During Game 4, forward Al Horford put up 30 points on 11/14 shooting from the field, including 5/7 from three. Those performances are going to be nearly impossible to replicate. It's going to be hard for the Celtics to find a way to win without a huge day from one of their secondary players, and that's just not a reliable way to win or cover.
Home court advantage will be a big help to the Bucks in this game. Milwaukee went 27-14 during the regular season at Fiserv Arena while going 24-17 anywhere else. The Celtics had similar home and away splits, showing that both teams clearly prefer to play on their respective home courts. The Bucks have only lost twice at home this postseason, and there's a good chance they maintain that record in this game.
Final Celtics-Bucks Prediction & Pick
The Bucks will end the series here. They have home-court advantage, and they're playing better basketball than the Celtics are. Lock in Milwaukee here.
Final Celtics-Bucks Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110)
