Subscribe
Follow Us
After making major moves in the offseason, the New York Mets Mets look to return to the playoffs in 2025. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a New York Mets over/under win total prediction and pick.
Last year, the Mets were 89-73 last year, making it to the playoffs for the second time in three years. In 2022, they finished 101-61 and would take a step back in 2023, going just 75-87. They now look to take another step further towards going deeper in the playoffs. The Mets signed Juan Soto in the offseason while also bringing back Pete Alonso. The win total is set at 91.5 wins for the Mets this year, but they have reached that total just once since 2007. They will need to take a step forward this year in a tough NL East if they hope to make it over 91.5 wins this year.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 91.5 Wins: (-118)
Under 91.5 Wins: (-104)
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why You Should Bet the Over
The main reason for the Mets to go over the win total is their newest offseason addition, Juan Soto. Soto finished third in the AL MVP voting last year while making an all-star game for the fourth time in his career, and also winning a Silver Slugger. Last year was his best season since his 2021 season with the Washington Nationals. He hit .288 with a .419 OBP and .569 slugging. Further, he hit 41 home runs and 109 RBIs. Last year, he had a 7.9 WAR, which, if he can replicate close to last season, it will be a huge step up for the Mets lineup this year.
The Mets will also have Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor in the lineup with Juan Soto. Pete Alonso hit .240 last year with a .329 OBP and a .459 slugging. He did his 34 home runs, but that was his lowest total in a full season of his career. Still, he should rebound, and his OPS+ and Rbat+ numbers both remained consistent last year. Francisco Lindor has consistently improved in his time in New York. Last year, he was second in the MVP voting, the third straight year being in the top ten of MVP voting. His WAR, OBP, and Slugging have also improved each of the last four years.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Mets starting pitching could be an issue this year. Sean Manaea will lead the staff for the Mets. He was solid last year, going 12-6 and finishing 11th in the Cy Young voting. Still, he is in his age 33 season, and this could be a one-off season last year. In the four prior seasons, he was a .500 pitcher and had a collective WAR of 3.1 over the four seasons. Taking out the 2021 season, the other three seasons had a combined WAR of -0.1. Next in line on the staff will be Kodai Senga. Senga was great in 2023, finishing 12-7 with a 4.5 WAR. Still, he missed most of 2024, pitching just one game with 5.1 innings. If he cannot rebound from the injuries that kept him out most of last year, there will be a major hole at the top of the rotation.
There is also the concern of declining bats. Nimmo has declined from his peak in the 2022 season when he hit .274 with a .367 OBP and .433 slugging. He also had a 5.1 WAR that year. Last year, that was down to a 2.2 WAR, while he hit just .224 with a .327 on-base percentage and a .399 slugging. Jeff McNeil has also been on a decline since the 2022 season. That year, he had a 5.7 WAR, hit .326, with a .382 OBP, and .454 slugging. Last year, he was down to hitting .238 with a .308 OBP and a .384 slugging. He also had a 1.6 WAR last year. Starling Marte has been similar. He had a 3.9 WAR in 2022, with 16 home runs, 63 RBIS, and hitting .292. In the two seasons since, he has not played a full year and combined for a -0.1 WAR, 12 home runs, 68 RBIs, and has hit just .258.
Final Mets Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The return of Pete Alonso after long contract negotiations, combined with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in the lineup up gives the Mets a solid middle of the order. Still, there are concerns around the other bats in the lineup, with regression from Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Starling Marte. There are also a lot of unknowns with the pitching staff. If Sean Manaea can produce like he did last year, and Kodai Senga returns to his form from 2023, the top of the rotation will be solid, if not, they will have major pitching issues this year. With the Phillies still a solid team and the Braves returning players from injury, this will be a tough road for the Mets. Take the under here.
Final Mets Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 91.5 Wins (-104)
