The AFC Championship is here! The Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a Bengals-Chiefs prediction and pick.
Not only did the Cincinnati Bengals win their first playoff game in 31 years, but they won two in a row as they knocked out the top-seeded Tennessee Titans. Cincinnati controlled that game from the first play when they picked off Ryan Tannehill. This team looks very good and they have already beaten the Chiefs this season back in Week 18.
For more insight on AFC Championship matchup between the Bengals and Chiefs, listen below:
Kansas City defeated the Buffalo Bills last weekend in what many consider one of the greatest NFL playoff games of all time. It was certainly a thriller as the Chiefs found a way to tie the game with only 13 seconds left before the final drive. If this game is anything close to their first matchup or last weekend, then make sure your popcorn is ready.
Here are the Bengals-Chiefs NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bengals-Chiefs Odds
Cincinnati Bengals: +7.5 (-118)
Kansas City Chiefs: -7.5 (-104)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
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Why The Bengals Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues BelowIf this game is anything like their first meeting, then the Bengals will have a chance to cover this spread. The Bengals are hot right now as their offense and defense are rising to the occasion. Let's start with the defense from last week. They completely shut down Ryan Tannehill and forced him to throw three interceptions. They contained who many consider the top running back in the NFL in Derrick Henry to a poor performance. Henry ran the ball 20 times for just 62 yards but did find the endzone. The Bengals did their job defensively and will have their toughest test of the season yet. yes, they have already beaten the Chiefs, but Kansas City has one of the greatest offenses of all time so they must continue to play well.
They need to lock up Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. Those two might be the hardest assignments in the NFL but the Bengals have no choice but to do so. They will not win this game if they don't stop them. The only way they win or even cover this spread with Hill and Kelce playing well is if they mimic what the Bills did last week. They must keep up and go toe-to-toe with them. for every time the Chiefs score, the Bengals must follow with a score. Joe Burrow will need to make sure his offense controls the time of possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Clearly, Mahomes only needs 13 seconds to score points. The Bengals must play perfectly if they want to cover this spread.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread
We all know Kansas City can cover any spread they go against. The problem is their defense keeping them in games. They faced the Bills last week who really played perfect two-straight weeks going back to the Wild Card game. It would have been hard for any defense to stop what the Bills did. Buffalo played as well as they could and did everything right besides leaving 13 seconds on the board. The Chiefs will be going up against a defense that is playing well right now, but they aren't quite on the Bills level. So with that being said, the Chiefs have a better chance of covering this spread compared to their chances last week.
Mahomes will be on his game. There is no way around that. As long as the Bengals don't control the time of possession and keep him off the field, the Chiefs should be in a position to cover this spread. They will score points, it's just a matter of how many they will give up. On the defensive side, they must shut down Burrow and Jamar Chase. Chase is finding gaps in the defense and he and Burrow are taking advantage of their chemistry. Expect Burrow and Chase to play well, but the Chiefs can still cover and win even if they play well. I don't think the Bengals' offense will play as well as the Bills did last week. But they certainly have the weapons to do so. Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins are all studs as well so the Chiefs' defense has a tough task.
Final Bengals-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
The Bengals are 12-7 against the spread and the Chiefs are 10-9. Those numbers are meaningless at this point because playoff football is a whole new story. I know the Bengals won the first matchup but the Chiefs are just too good right now. Take the Chiefs to cover this spread and hope that the Bengals don't play as the Bills did in that Sunday night thriller.
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Final Bengals-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Chiefs -7.5 (-104)