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Are there an abundant amount of chores to be done on your to-do list on Sunday? Not so fast my friend, for those can wait another day. After a long and grueling 220-something day of the offseason, the NFL is finally back. So, sit back, relax, and throw some dollar bills on an exciting Week 1 AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins. With that being said, it is time to take a look at our NFL odds series, where our Patriots-Dolphins prediction and pick will be made for all to see.
Entering the 2022 season, the Patriots definitely exceeded expectations with a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones at the helm, as New England clinched a playoff berth with a 10-7 record. Even though this was good for second place in the AFC East, the Patriots were blasted by the Bills come postseason time by a score of 47-17. Regardless of the sour finish, hopes are still high that Bill Belichick can scheme his way to yet another playoff appearance in his Hall-of-Fame career.
With the fallout with head coach Brian Flores even despite winning seven in a row after starting 1-7, the Dolphins decided to part ways and hire offensive guru Mike McDaniel, who spent his time running San Francisco's offense in 2021. Now with McDaniel implementing a desire to score points, Miami is hopeful that QB Tua Tagovailoa can take the next step in his pursuit of being one of the league's best field generals.
Here are the Patriots-Dolphins NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Dolphins Odds
New England Patriots: +3.5 (-115)
Miami Dolphins: -3.5 (-105)
Over: 46.5 (-105)
Under: 46.5 (-115)
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread
New England rebounded nicely in 2021 in large part due to a strong running game and a stout defense that kept the pressure off of Mac Jones in his rookie campaign. Unfortunately for New England, the Pats have lost some firepower on the defensive side of the ball with the departure of J.C. Jackson manning the corner position, and the secondary on paper won't be at its best ahead of this contest with Miami.
Regardless, Bill Belichick has become such a mastermind in the game of football that it likely won't matter. In fact, Belichick's schematically sound ways are so above the league's standard that it wouldn't be surprising if he had the ability to turn water into wine at this point. All jokes aside, this defense still has weapons in the form of their defensive line and their strongest unit on defense in the safeties. With the ageless wonder himself in Devin McCourty and safety-mates Adrian Phillips and Jabrill Peppers, expect these names to be helpful over the top in coverage for a cornerbacks room that is rather young.
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Offensively, the Patriots should be just fine barring a massive regression of Mac Jones under center. It also helps to have running backs as deep as New England has, as the dynamic duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson could end up giving the Dolphins fits on Sunday. This group gives the Pats the ability to dominate the time of possession and play smash-mouth football, which is something that will only help New England cover the spread out on the road.
Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread
If there are any teams in the NFL that have a chance to be the most improved squad in the league, look no further than the 2022 Miami Dolphins. Even more so, Miami has surprisingly covered eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings.
This season, the Dolphins are looking to improve off of a 2021 campaign that saw the offense falter at times. Inconsistency and youth were the biggest obstacles standing in their way, as they ranked as the 22nd-rated offense in the NFL. However, it would be baffling to think that Miami's offensive numbers would not improve in the coming months, especially with the blockbuster trade to acquire the speed demon himself Tyreek Hill from Kansas City. Not only that but the Dolphins should be expected to air out the ball way more often than they did a year ago. Clearly, this should serve as an advantage for Miami against a New England cornerbacks room that lacks experience with J.C. Jackson now playing his ball in Los Angeles.
On the defensive side of the ball, this unit was slightly underrated in 2021 as they finished 15th in points allowed per game at 21.9. Also, stopping the run should be the biggest priority for the ‘Fins defense as making the Pats fight for yardage and putting Mac Jones in uncomfortable positions with some third and longs will be critical in covering the spread and ultimately coming away with the victory.
Final Patriots-Dolphins Prediction & Pick
Is this the year that the Dolphins finally surpass the Patriots in the AFC East standings? Only time will tell, and while they may be improved, siding with a first-year coach against the likes of someone like Bill Belichick will be difficult to overcome. It will be close, but expect the Pats to narrowly cover the spread at Hard Rock Stadium.
Final Patriots-Dolphins Prediction & Pick: Patriots +3.5 (-115)
