Subscribe
Follow Us
This weekend brings us an exciting slate of NFL games. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a look at the top 3 spreads for this NFL slate.
We should see some good games, as five of the matchups on Sunday have spreads of three points or less, making this a fairly competitive week. There are only two games that have spreads of eight points or more. For a look ahead, we will be looking at both of these games, backing the favorite in one and taking the underdog and the points in the other.
All NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Week 9 Odds
Bills – Jets: Bills -11.5 (-108)
The Bills have the best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 14.0 ppg. They will be going up against a talented young player who has struggled with inconsistency throughout his career to date. Wilson can play, no doubt, and he has improved this season but we are talking about a talented but young and inconsistent quarterback as part of a talented but young and inconsistent offense going up against the best defense in football.
Not only do the Bills have the best defense in football, but they also have a top-two offense led by superstars Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. The Jets, meanwhile, have the 18th-ranked scoring offense and the 11th-ranked scoring defense. They do have a chance to at least slow down Allen and company, but I don’t think Wilson will be able to make enough plays against this defense, and that will likely be compounded by at least a few crucial mistakes that either give the Bills a short field or even allow their defense to directly convert into points.
I am always hesitant to some degree about backing double-digit favorites in the NFL due to the general parity across the league, but this is a situation that warrants it.
Rams-Buccaneers: Rams +3 (-118)
This is an interesting matchup between two teams that have both been fairly disappointing to start the season.
This decision comes down to one key statistic for me: Third down conversion percentage. Los Angeles ranks fifth in the league, converting their third downs at a 45.45% clip, while Tampa Bay ranks 25th, converting just 34.58% of their third downs. While they’ll likely get a small boost just by going up against a lower-ranked defense, I still think Los Angeles has the edge in these crucial situations.
While Tom Brady’s reputation precedes him, Matthew Stafford is no slouch either, and he has arguably the best receiver in football to throw to in Cooper Kupp. I can easily see the Rams winning this game outright, and I am comfortable taking Los Angeles and the field goal.
Titans-Chiefs: Titans +12.5 (-110)
Let me start by saying, I fully believe the Chiefs will win this game. That being said, being favored by nearly two touchdowns is a lot for an NFL spread. If Tannehill starts, his veteran savvy should at the very least limit mistakes, Derrick Henry can help the Titans control time of possession and score some points on the ground, and the Titans can at least keep this game somewhat close.
If Tannehill is ruled out and Malik Willis starts, the Chiefs should cover easily though, right? Not necessarily. Willis is a young kid with a cannon for an arm, has elite athleticism, is a magician in the backfield, and perhaps most importantly, defensive coordinators don’t have a ton of film on him yet. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Willis and Henry can make some plays together in the run game and give a defense fits running option plays. Willis also has a big arm and is absolutely capable of getting the ball downfield, where big plays can happen or pass interference can get called. A few lucky connections on deep throws can be enough to at least keep the game somewhat competitive.
The only way I see the Chiefs covering this spread is if they score the first two touchdowns of the game within the first quarter and force the Titans to air it out. I think Tennessee’s 9th-ranked defense will be able to hold their own, though, at least for a while.
