Subscribe
Follow Us
The most simple type of bet is the moneyline: Either the team you back wins, or they lose. However, the odds for these lines are very rarely anywhere close to -110. This makes finding value nearly as important as successfully picking winners. With that being said, let's take a look at our NFL odds series with some quality teams this weekend with good matchups and value on their moneylines.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Week 9 Odds
Green Bay Packers – Detroit Lions: Packers (-196)
The Packers have certainly had their struggles this year, and the team's receiving core leaves a lot to be desired. Their defense is solidly average. However, they still have something that Detroit doesn't: Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is still an elite passer, capable of putting the team on his back. The Lions are 1-6 on the year, and the only team they managed to beat is the Washington Commanders. Sure, the Commanders beat the Packers, but that is hardly a reason to believe anything other than the expected will happen this weekend. On a Sunday where most of the lower moneylines are too close to a toss-up, and the few heavy favorites have little to no value on the moneyline (except as part of a parlay), this matchup offers the most reliability at the most reasonable price.
Los Angeles Chargers – Atlanta Falcons: Chargers (-158)
Justin Herbert versus Marcus Mariota. Two very poor defenses. The Chargers are ranked 31st in the league, surrendering 27 ppg, but the Falcons are only slightly better at 29th, allowing 25.6 ppg. However, Mariota is more of a threat with his legs than his arm, and the Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up rushing touchdowns, ranking 18th, and allowing exactly one per game.
The Chargers are on the road, and they have a severely depleted wide receiver corps. That's quite a bit to overcome, but in today's NFL, an elite quarterback is the great equalizer, and Justin Herbert certainly qualifies as an elite quarterback. Give the Falcons their respect, they are certainly a quality team, trust Herbert with this game. Yes, injuries to the wideouts may present a challenge, but elite quarterbacks make average receivers look good and make below-average receivers look average.
If you like this matchup but are hesitant to lay the juice on a favorite with some weaknesses, there's one other option: Live betting. You can always hold off on this game but keep it in the back of your mind, and if Atlanta gets the ball first and scores, you could potentially get the Chargers at a much better price. It probably won't quite get to plus money until Herbert and company have a chance to answer, but it could very well drop closer to -120 than -158.
Even if you place a pregame wager if you really like their chances you could always place another bet at that time with better odds (if the game goes that way) to improve the overall value of the bet if Herbert and the Chargers come away with the victory.
Los Angeles Rams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rams (+132)
This is probably my favorite play today. I wrote about this earlier, taking the Rams and the points, but the more I analyze this matchup, the more I believe in the Rams having a good chance to win outright. Both of these teams have fallen short of the heavy expectations placed on them this year, but Tampa has been in absolute shambles. Sean McVay is an elite coach, and I have no doubt that he has impressed upon his team the importance of beating an, at least on paper, “elite” team, and how such a victory could help the Rams get their season back on track.
The game is being played in Tampa Bay, and the Bucs are three-point favorites. This means oddsmakers believe this game is closer to a toss-up on a neutral field, and indeed that is how I see it as well. Stafford, Kupp, McVay, and company are experienced, poised, and will not have as much trouble playing on the road as a younger team might. Forget that the game was played at their home stadium, these are guys who have seen the pressure of playing in the Super Bowl and came away with the trophy. This team is absolutely capable of winning on the road, and getting their season back on track in the process.
