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Christmas Eve brought a flurry of exciting games in the NFL on a Saturday, and now we get three Christmas Day games. It's time to make some NFL Christmas picks and predictions for this joyous day.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Picks: Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-146)
Green Bay ranks in the middle of the pack for passing touchdown defense, allowing 1.4 touchdowns per game through the air. Miami averages nearly two passing touchdowns per game, good for fourth in the league. The Packers are not equipped to stop Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s explosive passing game, which includes quick strike artist Tyreek Hill, who is a threat to score from anywhere on the field anytime he has the ball in his hands. I’m betting Tua will connect with Tyreek for at least one touchdown (and possibly more), while also throwing at least one touchdown to another player. This makes Tua a good bet for at least two passing touchdowns.
Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa 271 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception
NFL Picks: Broncos at Rams
Broncos: -3 (-112), ML (-166)
Rams: +3 (-108), ML (+140)
The Broncos have struggled heavily this season, but the Rams may be one of the few teams that have struggled worse. At least one thing the Broncos have going for them is a highly ranked passing defense. The Rams lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for the rest of the season a few weeks ago and will start Baker Mayfield in this game. Mayfield is talented, but he has struggled to find consistency at the NFL level.
Both of these offenses are downright bad, and the Rams will also be hurt by the losses of Cooper Kupp, arguably the best wide receiver in football, and Allen Robinson, another key playmaker at the receiver position. Simply put, take one of the worst offenses in football, substract their starting quarterback, their best wide receiver, and another key playmaker, and that is the Rams’ offense in December 2022. This is not going to be pretty.
On the defensive side of the ball, Aaron Donald is out. Denver ranks third in scoring defense, allowing just 18.1 points per game to opponents. The Broncos also rank fourth in passing yards allowed per game at 194.5, and they rank first in passing touchdowns allowed per game at just 0.9. The Broncos and Rams rank first and second, respectively, in touchdown percentage allowed in the redzone.
Given Denver’s slight advantage at QB with Russell Wilson over Mayfield, Denver’s moderate edge in overall defense and slight edge in red zone defense, I’ll take the Broncos moneyline in this matchup as the best pick. There’s also another option, though: although the total is set pretty low at over/under 36.5 points (-110 for both), I think with two bad offenses and two very good defenses, particularly in the red zone, the under should be in play. I don’t see how the Rams score two or more touchdowns against this Broncos defense, and it’s entirely possible they don’t even find the end zone once. I’d even venture to say it’s more likely they score zero touchdowns than that they score two-plus touchdowns. Because this total is so low, I would be willing to eat some juice and take an alternate total of under 40.5 at -205.
Predictions: Broncos moneyline (-166), under 40.5 alternate spread (-205)
NFL Picks: Buccaneers at Cardinals
Buccaneers: -7.5 (-110), ML (-360)
Cardinals: +7.5 (-110), ML (+290)
This is an interesting game to bet on for this NFL Christmas. The Cardinals will start their third-string quarterback, Trace McSorley, after losing Kyler Murray to a torn ACL and backup Colt McCoy to the concussion protocol. The Cardinals are coming off a 24-15 loss against the Broncos where they were 7.5-point dogs, the same number of points they are being given for this matchup. Tampa Bay is ranked 10th in scoring defense and 28th in scoring offense. Arizona ranks 32nd in scoring defense, allowing 26.6 points per game. Tom Brady has shown some brief flashes of his old self this season, and this will be the perfect game to regain his form against a porous defense.
Prediction: Buccaneers -7.5 (-110)
NFL Picks: Tom Brady over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-166)
The Cardinals are ranked second-to-last in the league in passing touchdowns allowed to opponents, giving up 1.8 touchdowns per game through the air. Their pass defense is simply not very good. The Bucs are not the team many people have thought they would be, and a lot of people feel we may be seeing Father Time finally catch up to the great Tom Brady. They might not be wrong, but I’m willing to bet that Brady still has a little something left in the tank and that he will turn back the clock and show out on this NFL Christmas Day against a poor pass defense to help keep his team in playoff contention.
Prediction: Tom Brady 293 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
