NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 16: Chargers smash Colts

The NFL Week 16 schedule brought pro football fans a special present underneath the tree. As Christmas Day fell on a Sunday in 2022, the league moved 11 games to Christmas Eve Saturday (with a very special Saturday RedZone!) to go along with the traditional Thursday and Monday night games and three on Christmas Sunday. So, here's more of our NFL odds series and the Week 16 picks and predictions for every game on the schedule.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 15 | Week 14 | Week 13 |Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8

So, without further ado, here are the NFL picks, predictions, and odds for Week 16, which wraps up with the Los Angeles Chargers facing the Indianapolis Colts.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-2.5)

Full Jaguars-Jets betting preview

This game pits the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft (Trevor Lawrence) vs. the No. 2 selection (Zach Wilson). More importantly, it is a de facto playoff game between the Jets and Jaguars. The team that wins won’t automatically get into the postseason, and the side that loses won’t technically be eliminated. However, the winner of this game has a huge leg up (and the tiebreaker) on the other side. For me, as good as the Jets' defense is, this comes down to which QB I trust more, and that’s Lawrence by a mile as we kick off the NFL Week 16 picks and predictions.

Prediction: Jaguars 20-13

Update: Zach Wilson got booed and benched as the Jaguars took home a 19-3 win. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Full Falcons-Ravens betting preview

If Lamar Jackson were quarterbacking the Ravens, the team should cover. He's not, but the Ravens' D alone should be enough to win against rookie QB Desmond Ridder and the Falcons. But winning by more than a touchdown? That seems suspect with Tyler Huntley. I’ll go with a Ravens win and a Falcons cover.

Prediction: Ravens 21-16

Update: The Ravens pulled out a 17-9 win to clinch a playoff spot. 

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Full Lions-Panthers betting preview

After starting 1-6, the Lions are 6-1 in their last seven games, putting them in contention for an NFC playoff spot. The next hurdle in their way is the 5-9 Panthers. Amazingly, the Panthers aren’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet but would be out as a Wild Card team (not out of the NFC South) with a loss on Saturday. The Lions are the better team right now, so they should stay hot.

Prediction: Lions 28-24

Update: The Lions laid a huge egg in a 37-23 loss to the Panthers.

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears

Full Bills-Bears betting preview

On paper, the Bills are the far superior team. However, like the Chiefs, they’ve had trouble putting lesser teams away in the second half of the season. That said, Justin Fields' running has been the Bears' saving grace this year, and with Matt Milano and Tremaine Edwards at linebacker, the Bills' defense has been good against running quarterbacks. That will allow the Bills to pull ahead and stay ahead on Saturday.

Prediction: Bills 35-16

Update: The Bills took care of business with a 35-13 triumph. 

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns (-3)

Full Saints-Browns betting preview

This is yet another game in Week 16 where both teams technically have a shot to make the playoffs still, although their chances are small. And despite still looking rusty, Deshaun Watson is finding ways to beat lesser teams on the Browns’ schedule. This should be another game that the Browns win, even if they don’t look all that convincing doing it.

Prediction: Browns 18-14

Update: The Browns got eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-10 loss to the Saints. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

Full Seahawks-Chiefs betting preview

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the kings of letting teams hang around this season. Despite being massive favorites the last two weeks, they’ve won their last two games against the Texans and Broncos by just six points each time. The Seahawks are desperate for this win, and while they won’t get it, they will give themselves a shot late.

Prediction: Chiefs 27-21

Update: The Chiefs handily took down the slumping Seahawks, 24-10. 

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Full Giants-Vikings betting preview

The Vikings needed the greatest comeback in NFL history last week to beat the lowly Colts. Now they have a Giants team coming in that is always frisky, no matter who the opponent is. That said, the public is still taking the Vikings at a 2-to-1 clip this week with the relatively small spread for a game between an 11-3 team at home vs. an 8-5-1 team on the road. I like the Giants to keep this one close and maybe even pull the upset in these NFL Week 16 picks and predictions.

Prediction: Giants 28-27

Update: The Vikings did it again, pulling out a 27-24 win over the Giants on a 61-yard field goal as time expired. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ New England Patriots

Full Bengals-Patriots betting preview

After the worst regular-season loss in the history of the NFL, there can’t be good vibes in the Patriots' locker room. And while moving “on to Cincinnati” has worked well for the Pats in the past, this isn’t your daddy’s “Bungles” anymore. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase should pile on the Patriots this weekend and take this game by a touchdown or more.

Prediction: Bengals 23-13

Update: The Bengals narrowly avoided a huge collapse to beat the Patriots, 22-18, and deal a major blow to their playoff chances. 

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Full Texans-Titans betting preview

The AFC South is slip-sliding away from the Titans, who’ve lost four in a row and five of their last seven. The Texans are on an even worse nine-game slide, but they’ve given the Chiefs and Cowboys all they could handle in recent weeks, losing those two games by a combined 10 points. The Titans should stop their skid against the Texans, but it won’t be a route by any means. I’ll take the Titans to win and the Texans to cover.

Prediction: Titans 16-13

Update: The Titans' playoff chances took a major hit with a stunning 19-14 loss to the lowly Texans. 

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Full Commanders-49ers betting preview

This is a desperation game for the Commanders as they hang on to the final NFC playoff spot by a thread. However, even with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft at QB, the 49ers look like one of (if not the) best team in the NFL right now. The Niners need this game, too, as moving into the No. 2 spot and guaranteeing themselves home-field advantage in the playoffs throughout if the Eagles falter is still on the table. That’s why I love the 49ers at home this week.

Prediction: 31-17

Update: The 49ers stayed hot with a 37-20 victory over the Commanders. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)

Full Eagles-Cowboys betting preview

This has all the trappings of a trap game for the Eagles and for bettors. The better team is a significant underdog, fan-favorite backup Gardner Minshew is starting, and the Cowboys (and Dak Prescott) looked terrible last week. In the NFL, nothing is ever as cut and dry as it seems, though. Over 70% of the bets here are coming in on the Eagles' side — for obvious reasons — but that’s why I like taking a flyer on the Cowboys at home in these NFL Week 16 picks and predictions.

Prediction: Cowboys 25-20

Update: The Cowboys pulled out a wild 40-37 win over the rival Eagles. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

Full Raiders-Steelers betting preview

The Raiders don’t deserve to be in the playoff hunt, just like they didn’t deserve to win last week. They are the far superior team, talent-wise, but a no-show on the road, in the cold, in Pittsburgh seems like the exact move the 2022 Raiders will pull. Plus, Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 and needs to win three of his last four to keep that streak going. Who knows if he can work that kind of magic with this year’s team, but he’ll at least keep the dream alive for one more week.

Prediction: Steelers 23-17

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Update: Kenny Pickett's late TD pass pushed the Steelers past the Raiders, 13-10. 

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Full Packers-Dolphins betting preview

The Dolphins lost to the Bills last week but looked good doing it in brutal conditions on the road. The Packers beat the Rams last week, but even a 12-point victory wasn’t that confidence-inspiring. After a three-game skid, the Dolphins need this game more, too, and Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle should do enough to get it handily.

Prediction: Dolphins 27-14

Update: Tua Tagovailoa fell apart in a 26-20 Dolphins loss that has the Packers still thinking playoffs. 

Denver Broncos (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams

Full Broncos-Rams betting preview

If your family asks you what time you want to do the bulk of the Christmas Day activities on Sunday afternoon, you should tell them to start at 4:30 p.m. ET. That’s when this dog game kicks off, and if you’re going to miss anything for family festivities, this is the game to miss. In this game of “who knows?” vs. “who cares?” I’ll take the home dog because I have zero confidence in either team to play a good game in Week 16.

Prediction: Rams 16-13

Update: Baker Mayfield and the Rams embarrassed the Broncos, 51-14. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Full Buccaneers-Cardinals betting preview

This game is not much better than the one before it, but it does have the classic quarterback battle of Tom Brady vs. Trace McSorley. The abiding factor here is that I just don’t think Brady will lose a battle to McSorley and Kliff Kingsbury, so even though the spread is a little higher than I would like, I will still take the Buccaneers on the road in these NFL Week 16 picks and predictions.

Prediction: Buccaneers 21-12

Update: The Buccaneers squeaked out a 19-16 win in overtime. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts

Full Chargers-Colts betting preview

The Colts have to be absolutely staggered after giving up the biggest comeback in NFL history last week. The Jeff Saturday experiment is officially over, and most Colts players should already have their flights to tropical islands booked for Monday morning after Week 18. On the other side, the Chargers have won three of four and are starting to finally get healthy at the right time. This game screams Chargers blowout, which means Colts fans getting the chance to heartily boo their team on primetime TV for such a disappointing season.

Prediction: Chargers 31-17

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