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The Philadelphia Phillies (87-75) will kick off the first game of the NL Wild Card series when they visit the St. Louis Cardinals (93-69) on Friday afternoon. Zack Wheeler (12-7) will start game one for the Phillies, while will Jose Quintana (6-7) take the mound for the Cardinals. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:07 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler was announced as the starter for the series opener. Wheeler was tremendous for Philadelphia during the regular season. Although he was limited to 153 innings due to injury, the righty still managed to collect a 12-7 record and 163 strikeouts. Wheeler did so to the tune of a 2.82 ERA. That includes a red-hot September that saw him allow just a single run in two starts. Perhaps the only time Wheeler was better than the last month was when he faced the Cardinals. In two regular-season starts, Wheeler went 2-0 against St. Louis. He did not allow a single run in his 14 innings of work against the Cards. For Wheeler's career, he has given the Cardinals top-of-the-lineup fits. The thirty-two-year-old has held MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to just 5 hits in 23 lifetime at-bats. Whether or not Wheeler will be able to replicate his prior success against St. Louis' lineup will go a long way in making a Phillies-Cardinals prediction.
For the Cardinals, Jose Quintana will be the starter for game one. During the regular season, Quintana amassed just a 6-7 record, however, he pitched much better than that would indicate. Across 165 innings Quintana managed a 2.93 ERA and struck out 137 batters. Quintana was nearly unhittable at Busch Stadium where he allowed just 6 earned runs across 29 innings. The lefty started one game against the Phillies this season and did not allow a run in 5 2/3 innings pitched. He's coming off a stellar month of September that saw him allow only 3 runs in 30 innings.
Here are the Phillies-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NL Wild Card Odds: Phillies-Cardinals Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+150)
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-182)
Over: 6.5 (-124)
Under: 6.5 (+102)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies had a tremendous regular season especially given their plethora of injuries. Philadelphia survived extended absences from both Zack Wheeler and outfielder Bryce Harper en route to their postseason appearance. The Phillies secured their playoff berth while relying primarily on their offense. A middle-of-the-pack team by most defensive metrics, Philadelphia finished top ten in the league in home runs, runs, and batting average.
With Bryce Harper appearing in less than 100 regular season games, the Phillies were forced to look elsewhere in their lineup for power production. In Kyle Schwarber's breakout season, they found everything they were looking for and more. After hitting just 43 homers combined in his last three seasons, Schwarber paced the National League with 46 homers this season. His resurgent season was a major reason for Philadelphia's success as he lead the team in both home runs and RBIs. Despite his power surge, Schwarber struggled to make consistent contact (.218 average) and saw his power neutralized against St. Louis. The journeyman hit just .138 across seven games between the two teams.
One guy who had no issues against St. Louis in the regular season was first baseman, Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins had a solid regular season which saw him hit .246 and blast 30 home runs. In seven matchups with St. Louis, Hoskins terrorized the Cardinals to the tune of a .360 batting average and 3 home runs. Having collected 20 total bases in the 29 at-bats, Hoskins will play a major role in the outcome of this series. His prior success with St. Louis is something to consider when making a Phillies-Cardinals prediction.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals' season was dominated by Albert Pujols headlines – and rightfully so. The future Hall-of-Famer had a tremendous year in his goodbye tour in suppressing numerous MLB milestones. However, the attention his home run chase received may have undersold how good the team around him was. The Cardinals finished among the top of the league in runs and with a run differential more reflective of a 100-win team than a 93-win team.
While Pujols received the majority of publicity for his resurgence, the Cardinals' offense was much more than just the MLB legend. St. Louis is backboned by the duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The two have been competing for the NL MVP award all season and the stats back it up. Goldschmidt is the likely winner of the award thanks to a .317 batting average, 35 home runs, and 115 RBIs. However, that's to take nothing away from Arenado's season. He was right behind his first baseman with a .293 average, 30 home runs, and 103 RBIs. The duo accounted for over 30% of the team's home runs and RBIs. Whether or not they're able to replicate their regular season success will be a major factor in the outcome of the series.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Cardinals have one of the most sound, fundamental teams in all of baseball. They're a professional team with ample experience to boot. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler held the Cardinals in check during the regular season… but we're talking about playoffs! Philly's offensive inconsistency and inexperience on the big stage should be enough for St. Louis to squeak this one out.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-182)
