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The Philadelphia Phillies are in the playoffs for the first time in a decade as they head to the midwest to face off with the St. Cardinals at Busch Stadium. It is a best-of-3 series, and time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Cardinals prediction and pick.
The Phillies finished 87-75 while going 40-41 on the road. It is their first playoff appearance since 2011. Likewise, the Cardinals were the team they last faced in postseason action. The Cardinals finished as the NL Central champion, going 93-69 and 52-28 at home. Also, it is their third straight season making the playoffs, and they look to make it to the World Series for the first time since 2011.
The Phillies won the season series 4-3, including a split of four games at Busch Stadium. They need to steal two of three games to sneak into the next round.
The Phillies have set their three-man rotation. Initially, they will begin with Zach Wheeler for Game 1. Wheeler is 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA. Additionally, he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over two starts (and 14 innings) against the Cardinals this season. Aaron Nola will get the nod for Game 2. Nola is 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA. However, Nola struggled in his one matchup with St. Louis, allowing five earned runs on seven hits through seven innings in a loss at Busch Stadium. Ranger Suarez will start Game 3. Suarez is 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA. Subsequently, he has never faced the Cards.
The Cardinals have not decided on a series rotation but likely will go with Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Jordan Montgomery. Wainwright is 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA. However, he went 0-2 with a 3.68 ERA against the Phillies over two games. Wainwright has plenty of playoff experience, going 4-5 with a 2.83 ERA and four saves over 29 appearances. Meanwhile, Mikolas went 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA in 2022. This year, he went 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA against the Phillies. Amazingly, he dominated them at home, going 7 1/3 innings while allowing one earned run and six hits. Montgomery was the midseason addition. Likewise, he went 9-6 with a 3.48 ERA this year. Montgomery made one playoff appearance in 2020, allowing one earned run on three hits through four innings.
Here are the Phillies-Cardinals series MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NL Wildcard Odds: Phillies-Cardinals Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +114
St. Louis Cardinals: -134
Why The Phillies Will Win the Series
The Phillies have some solid pitching. Ultimately, they live and die on their hitting. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins are their best hitters.
Harper finished the season batting .286 with 18 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 63 runs. Stunningly, he did not face the Cardinals in 2022. Harper is batting .333 with 12 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 33 runs through 54 career games against the Cards. Meanwhile, Schwarber finished with a batting average of .218 while clubbing a league-leading 46 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 100 runs. This season, he struggled against the Cards, batting .138 (4 for 29) with one home run, two RBIs, and two runs. Hoskins finished the season batting .246 with 30 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 81 runs. Additionally, he did well against St. Louis, batting .360 (9 for 25) with three home runs, four RBIs, and four runs through seven games.
These hitters will need good bullpen arms to protect any lead they get. Thus, the Phillies have three arms in the backend of the bullpen they rely on. David Robertson is the defacto closer, going 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 20 saves. Also, Corey Knebel has a role, going 3-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 12 saves. Jose Alvarado is the ultimate setup man, finishing 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA. The Phillies ranked 23rd in bullpen ERA, so these three must step up their game.
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The Phillies will win the series if Harper, Schwarber, and Hoskins all club the baseball. Additionally, they need good performances from their pitching staff and the bullpen to hold the lead.
Why The Cardinals Will Win the Series
The Cardinals are a resilient team. Likewise, they also have two sluggers in their lineup that many opponents fear. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have carried the Cardinals to unbelievable heights. Now, they need to do more.
Goldschmidt finished the season with a batting average of .317 with 35 home runs, 115 RBIs, and 106 runs. Amazingly, he did better at home, batting .347 with 22 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 59 runs. Goldschmidt hit .250 (6 for 24) with four runs against the Phillies in 2022. Arenado finished the year with a batting average of .293 with 30 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 73 runs. Additionally, he owned the Phillies, batting .455 (10 for 22) with three home runs, six RBIs, and four runs through six games.
The Cards have Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos at the backend of the bullpen. Helsley finished 9-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 19 saves. Likewise, Gallegos went 3-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 14 saves. They were part of a bullpen that ranked 11th in the majors in team ERA.
The Cardinals will win the series if their pitching holds up and Goldschmidt and Arenado carry the load. Moreover, they cannot fall behind and must find a rhythm early.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
Experience almost always wins. Thus, the Cards appear to be more consistent. This series will go all three games, with the Cardinals taking it on Sunday.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals in Three
