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These two teams have been very inconsistent recently and in ACC play. They are both on the bubble and need a win to stay on the right side. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a North Carolina-Wake Forest prediction and pick.
North Carolina is 21-12 and has won seven of its last eight games. It has quality wins against Dayton, UCLA, SMU, and Pitt. However, the losses have piled up, with significant ones coming to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida, Louisville, Duke twice, and Clemson. The Tar Heels need a win to stay off the bubble and RJ Davis to be superhuman.
Wake Forest is 21-10, with notable wins against Michigan and North Carolina. They also have notable losses against Xavier, Florida, Texas A&M, Clemson, and Duke twice. This team goes as Hunter Sallis goes on offense. Sallis must have a big game for the Demon Deacons to move on. A win here would further move them towards being safely in the tournament.
Here are the North Carolina-Wake Forest College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
ACC Tournament Odds: North Carolina-Wake Forest Odds
North Carolina: -6.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -245
Wake Forest: +6.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +198
Over: 146.5 (-106)
Under: 146.5 (-114)
How to Watch North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Time: 2:30 pm ET/11:30 am PT
TV: ACC Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina has one of the best offenses in the ACC, only behind Duke this season. They score 81.7 points per game, have a 48% field goal percentage, and have a 35.3% three-point percentage. The Tar Heels have also jumped up to 19th in adjusted offense on KenPom, with a rating of 119.6.
Three different Tar Heels are averaging over double digits on this offense. Davis is the most consistent scorer on this team, averaging 17.2 points per game. They have been okay at best with ball movement as a team, averaging 14.7 assists per game. Elliot Cadeau is the assist leader, averaging six per game.
The Tar Heels have the offense to score on almost anyone, and they should find success against Wake Forest in this game in the ACC Tournament. This is a strength-on-strength matchup and should decide who wins.
Wake Forest's offense has struggled this year. They score 70.4 points per game, have a 44.7% field goal percentage, and a 29.2% three-point shooting percentage. This offense is also very low on KenPom, ranking 138th and having a 109.1 rating.
Only two Demon Deacons are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Hunter Sallis being the best and most consistent scorer, averaging 18 points per game. Then, Cameron Hildreth is just behind him with 14.9 points per game. Sallis and Ty-Laur Johnson are tied for the team lead in assists at 2.8 per game, and then Hildreth averages 2.7 per game.
The Demon Deacons have struggled to find much offense this year outside of Sallis. Hildreth has also been solid, but finding consistent offense has been a struggle. This is a bad matchup because North Carolina can quickly get up and down, and they should do it again in this matchup.
Why Wake Forest Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina's defense has been a disaster this season. They allow 76.1 points per game, 43.7% from the field, and 34.6% from behind the arc. They are only 65th in KenPom in adjusted defense with a 100.6 rating.
The Tar Heels' frontcourt has struggled to find success this season. Seth Trimble is the rebounding leader from the backcourt, averaging 5.2 per game. He is also the best perimeter defender, leading the team in steals, averaging 1.4 per game. Jalen Washington is the leader in blocks, averaging 0.9 per game.
The Tar Heels should at least be able to slow down this Demon Deacon offense in a neutral-site game. Wake Forest has struggled on this side of the court, so they have a decent matchup.
Wake Forest's defense has been excellent this season, so they are on the bubble. They allow 68 points per game, 40.4% from the field, and 30.5% from behind the arc. They stumbled down on KenPom in adjusted defense, ranking at 40th and they have a rating of 97.8.
The frontcourt has been solid this season. Tre'Von Spillers is the leading rebounder with 7.5 per game and leads the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. Their perimeter defense has been solid as well. Three Demon Deacons are averaging at least one steal, with Hildreth leading the team with 1.7 steals per game.
The Demon Deacons lean on their defense this year, which will be the key in this game. They played well against North Carolina recently in the regular season and should slow down this offense, but they don't have the athletes to compete consistently.
Final North Carolina-Wake Forest Prediction & Pick
North Carolina is more trustworthy. The Tar Heels need a win to feel safer on the right side of the bubble and are the better team. The Tar Heels should win, cover, and get closer to feeling safe for the tournament.
Final North Carolina-Wake Forest Prediction & Pick: North Carolina -6.5 (-102)
