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These two teams have a lot of players available in this renewed Texas series. North Texas has been more inconsistent than Texas State this season. The game's most interesting aspect is that Mean Green is starting a true freshman at quarterback due to Chandler Morris transferring out. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a North Texas-Texas State prediction and pick.
North Texas-Texas State Last Game – Matchup History
These two teams have a long history as smaller schools in Texas that have played each other. However, they have not played since 1994. North Texas won the last three games these two teams have played, with the Mean Green winning from 1992 to 1994. A lot has changed for both teams since 1994, and renewing this series in the First Responder Bowl will be interesting.
Overall Series: North Texas leads 29-7-3
Here are the North Texas-Texas State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: North Texas-Texas State Odds
North Texas: +13.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +400
Texas State: -13.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -550
Over: 61.5 (-110)
Under: 61.5 (-110)
How to Watch North Texas vs. Texas State
Time: 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: ESPN
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why North Texas Could Cover The Spread/Win
North Texas has had a great season on offense this year. They are averaging 488.7 yards and 34 points per game. They are third in total yards per game in the entire FBS. The Mean Green love to throw the ball, but with Chandler Morris in the Transfer Portal, they are turning to true freshman Drew Mestemaker under center. Mestemaker has attempted five passes and completed four for 69 yards with an 80% completion percentage. DT Sheffield leads a balanced unit in the receiving corps with 822 yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions. They do not try to run the ball that much, but Shane Porter leads the team with 643 yards and five touchdowns on 95 carries. This offense is tailored to the quarterback, so Mestemaker is set up for success. The Bobcats are a solid defense, and the Mean Green are built to score, but Mestemaker is unknown, which makes him the biggest X-factor.
The Mean Green are lucky they are great on offense because this defense has struggled all year. They are allowing 456.6 yards and 34.5 points per game. They are playing about the same against the pass and the run this season, struggling against both evenly. They allow 261.1 yards through the air and 195.5 yards per game on the ground. There is not much to like about this defense, but the front seven have had some highlights, such as Jaylen Smith, Chavez Brown, and Roderick Brown. If they are going to find any success, it's in the front seven. Still, based on their play this year, all signs point to a shootout between these two teams, and it is based on which team has the ball last.
Why Texas State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Texas State's offense has been one of the best units in the Group of Five, just behind the Mean Green. The offense is averaging 474.3 total yards and 37.1 points per game. Jordan McCloud is the biggest key under center for the Bobcats. He has 2,920 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 69.6% completion percentage. The receiving corps was very balanced this year, with three receivers hitting at least 600 yards receiving. Joey Hobert is the leading receiver with 661 yards, eight touchdowns, and 66 receptions. With Ismail Mahdi transferring to Arizona, Lincoln Pare is the starting running back. Pare has 411 yards and six touchdowns on 74 carries. This offense should have no issues scoring on the Mean Green in Dallas. This game has a shootout written all over it.
Texas State's defense has been inconsistent all year. It allows 347.9 yards and 24.3 points per game. However, it is solid against the pass and the run, allowing 199.8 yards through the air and 148.2 yards on the ground. This passing defense is what will determine this game. The Mean Green may be starting a true freshman, but that will not keep them from throwing the ball. Jordan Polk and Ryan Nolan lead Texas State in the secondary, and then James Neal and Kalil Alexander are two names to watch in the front seven. This defense will decide the game because it will become a shootout if they can't slow down the passing attack.
Final North Texas-Texas State Prediction & Pick
Texas State is the better team this year. North Texas has the offense, but it's more unknown with Mestemaker as the quarterback. Texas State also has the offense to shred the Mean Green on defense. Expect points and the over, but Texas State wins and covers in Dallas.
Final North Texas-Texas State Prediction & Pick: Texas State -13.5 (-115), Over 61.5 (-110)
